Christopher Lewis
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EUR/USD daily chart, November 19, 2019

The Euro has rallied slightly during the trading session on Monday, but is starting to run towards the 1.11 level, an area that could cause some resistance. With that being the case, I think it’s very likely that we will continue to see issues when it comes to the Euro trying to gain strength. The US dollar has lost a little bit of strength against the common currency during the trading session, mainly due to the lack of enthusiasm about a possible US/China trade agreement. However, this will eventually start to focus on the European Union itself, meaning that there should be more negativity coming.

EUR USD Forecast Video 19.11.19

The 1.11 level is the scene of the bottom of a larger “M pattern”, meaning that we had seen a “double top” at the 200 day EMA. The 1.11 level was significantly supportive previously, but now it looks very likely that it should offer resistance. All things being equal, the market could roll over and go looking towards the 1.10 level underneath, and then perhaps breaking below there could open up the major trend to continue to the downside, down to the 1.09 handle.

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I have no interest in buying this market until we can break above the 200 day EMA, perhaps even on a weekly close. At that point, the market probably goes looking towards the 1.15 handle, but that would take a major shift in overall attitude, something that I just don’t see happening anytime soon. Given enough time, this market should start selling off yet again, continuing the overall downtrend.

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