EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro recovers after initially falling

The Euro initially fell during trading on Wednesday but turned around to show signs of life again. At this point, the market is likely to continue the choppy behavior that we have seen, at least of the last couple of years. At this point in time I would anticipate more back and forth.
Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD daily chart, November 21, 2019

The EUR/USD pair initially fell during trading on Wednesday, reaching down towards the 50 day EMA before turning around and rally and. This suggests that we are going to continue to see a lot of erratic and choppy behavior, but quite frankly I still favor the downside in this market as we are still in the long term downtrend. Beyond that, the European Central Bank continues to cause issues for the strength of the Euro as the central bank is expected to continue buying assets. On the other side of the equation we have the Federal Reserve likely to sit still, meaning that although not necessarily hawkish, they aren’t necessarily dovish either.

Euro to Dollar Forecast Video 21.11.19

If we can break down below the 50 day EMA it’s likely that we go looking towards the 1.10 level, and a breakdown below their opens up the door down to the 1.09 level after that. All things being equal, this is a market that I still like fading rallies and I recognize that above we have a major amount of resistance in the form of the 200 day EMA as well, as it was the recent scene of a turnaround and the top of a large “M pattern.” At this point, it’s not until we would break above that area that I would start buying. While the market certainly shows a bit of resiliency, at this point it continues to be a “fade the rally” scenario, as signs of strength continue to get hit.

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