EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro rolls over

The Euro initially tried to rally during the day on Monday and a bit of a “risk on” move after the US/China trade war cease-fire. Ultimately though, the European Union has a lot of economic sluggishness at the moment, so it is of course weighing upon the Euro. We have been in a downtrend, so obviously there’s a lot of order flow above pricing lower. I believe at this point rallies are to be sold, unless of course we can break above the 1.15 handle. Overall, this is a market that I think will probably continue to drift around sideways overall, perhaps with more of a negative bias than anything else.

EUR USD Forecast Video 04.12.18

If we did turn around and break above the 1.15 handle, that would be a rather significant turn of events, sending the market higher at that point, perhaps as high as the 1.18 handle. Overall though, I think the most important level to pay attention to is the 1.11 level underneath, which has been significant support on longer-term charts. Ultimately, I think that what we are looking at is a lot of choppiness and as we go into the holiday season, I think you will see more of that. I think at this point the high-frequency traders are running this currency pair more than anybody else, so that means we will continue to struggle for clarity at this point. If there is some type of “risk off” scenario, then I think this pair will continue to fall as people jump into the U.S. Treasury markets, driving up the value of the US dollar. Beyond that, there is typically a dollars shortage this time of year.