EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro rolls over after speech

The Euro initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but struggled to break above the 50 day EMA. By turning around at the 1.13 level, the market looks very likely to drop back down towards the consolidation area underneath, as Mario Draghi  spoke to the media about being able to adjust instruments as necessary to keep inflation going higher. In other words, he’s talking about being soft and loose with monetary policy.

Euro to Dollar Forecast Video 11.04.19

Although this looks very negative, the reality is there is enough support underneath to keep this market somewhat afloat. You also have to keep in mind that the Federal Reserve is very loose with its monetary policy and only getting worse, so there is a little bit of a floor in this market. It doesn’t mean that you should go all in, just simply that we could find buyers underneath. The most important take away from this article is probably not to start shorting quite yet. Yes, the Euro will probably drop from here but it’s only get so far before it runs into a buzz saw of buying pressure.

The alternate scenario as we turned around for some reason and break above the 50 day EMA, pictured in red. Obviously, that would be a very bullish sign and send this market much higher. I do think long-term it will eventually happen, but I’m open-minded enough to recognize that a break down below the 1.1150 level would be extraordinarily negative and send the Euro down to the 1.10 level eventually.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below