EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – Grinding Away Again

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

You can see that the euro has gone back and forth during the course of the week, settling on somewhat negative momentum. But really at this point in time, the market continues to bounce around between 1.10 at the top and 1.07 at the bottom. I think that’s probably the main takeaway here as we continue to see so much in the way of uncertainty. Keep in mind that both of these central banks are likely to cut rates later this year and therefore it kind of makes neither currency overly exciting. In general, the 200-week EMA above will offer a certain amount of resistance. The 50-week EMA underneath could offer support, but I think that the 1.07 level is much more important. As we grind sideways so far this year it looks a lot like last year.

And as both central banks are moving in tandem, I believe, it does make a lot of sense that we hang around in this area. There are a couple of caveats that could appear. For example, if there’s a huge risk on the move, then perhaps the euro rallies. But I think more likely, there could be some type of major concern about a global slowdown, and that would make the dollar stronger. But right now, we don’t have signs of it either. So, this is a sideways action just waiting to happen. With that being said, perhaps drilling down to the daily chart and just swing trading in this little bit of a range is the best way forward.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.