EUR/USD, USD/CAD and GBP/USD Forecasts – US Dollar Quiet on Good Friday

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro is very quiet during the trading session on Friday, as one would expect, with so many traders celebrating Good Friday and so many places shut down. But as you can see, we are just bouncing around the 1.1550 level, which is right in the middle of the overall consolidation. In other words, not much has changed over the last couple of days.

With the Euro falling on Thursday, it put it right back in the middle of the larger consolidation range, and I still am bearish on the Euro in general, but I also recognize that from time to time it will bounce. The 50-day EMA sits right around the 1.1650 region, the top of the range, and the 1.14 region underneath is the bottom of the range. We are right in the middle of it.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US dollar is slightly positive against the Canadian dollar, but what I am watching is whether or not we are going to start forming a bullish flag or if we do, in fact, get a little bit of a pullback. It looks like we are killing some time here, right around the 1.39 level, as market participants try to digest the massive move higher in the US dollar.

This isn’t about oil, and oil is flying at the moment. This is about the interest rate differential between the United States and the outside world’s effect on this currency pair. The Canadian economy is cooling down a bit, while the US economy remains very sticky as far as inflation and growth are concerned.

We just had a couple of PMI and employment numbers that all pointed towards a more robust employment situation in America, and that could drive this pair to the 1.40 level.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound finds itself right around the 1.3250 level yet again, an area that’s been important multiple times as support. Now the question is, will it be resistance? I don’t know, I don’t think it is right away. I think you’ve got a situation where we just continue to chop around this region looking for some type of longer-term move.

I do like fading rallies, though, especially near the 1.33 level. Monday, it’ll be interesting because we’ll have a whole weekend of nonsensical headlines, my guess is, driving the markets out of either Tehran or Washington. The British pound itself is a little bit more resilient than many other currencies against the dollar, but at the end of the day, if things go south again, as far as sentiment is concerned, it’ll be the dollar that’s the big winner.

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