EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF Forecasts – US Dollar All Over the Place

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro has been all over the place during early Monday trading, which makes sense because we have a lot of nonsense crossing the headlines. The US administration claims that there have been significant amounts of decent talks over the weekend and made great progress, while the Iranians claim there are no talks at all, so we have seen a lot of back-and-forth behavior.

The yields in America continue to rise, which makes the dollar attractive, but the ECB has sounded a little bit more hawkish this last time, so again, as per usual, we have a pair that doesn’t know what to do.

We are sitting just below the 200-day EMA, and if we can turn around and break above the 1.16 level, there is a chance that we will rally towards 1.18, but if we turn around and break down below the 1.14 level, then I think we could drop to the 1.11 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is choppy and sideways with a slightly bearish attitude.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US dollar initially fell against the Canadian dollar as everybody was celebrating the idea that the war in the Middle East could be cooling off, as the Iranians poured cold water on that we have seen the US dollar race back towards the 1.3750 level. It will be interesting to see if it can break above there because if it does, I think it is a very strong sign. It is probably also a big “risk off” move more than anything else.

As far as oil is concerned, my email box, Twitter feed, and everything else are filled with people not understanding why oil isn’t driving this pair through the floor. The reality is the United States is the world’s largest producer of oil, so keep that in mind.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US dollar is noisy but slightly positive against the Swiss franc, as we continue to hang around the 0.79 level. The 0.79 level is an area that has been important for a long time, both as support and now resistance. The 200-day EMA sits at 0.80 so that obviously is an area that a lot of people will be watching as well. If we can break above that level, then I think it allows the market to go much higher. Short-term pullbacks will be supported more likely than not by the 50-day EMA.