EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Chop Back and Forth

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has fallen a little bit during early trading on Thursday but really at this point in time it just looks like we are hanging around the same area. The market is struggling with the 1.17 level and breaking above there seems to be really difficult at the moment. But I also recognize that we are in the quietest time of summer and liquidity and volume probably are going to continue to be an issue.

So, with that, I look at this through the prism of a market that is just hanging out. Waiting for more information, what will the Federal Reserve do? I think we’ve already priced at least one cut, possibly two, by the end of the year. The next couple of weeks may feature range-bound noise. The 1.18 level above is the scene of a double top, so pay attention to that, as resistance and support should be found just below the 1.16 level at the 50-day EMA.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has fallen a bit against the Japanese yen, but in all fairness, the Japanese yen has strengthened against almost everything. It’s not just the US dollar. So, with that being said, it will be interesting to see how this plays out. I think this is just a simple risk off trade, not only here, but with other yen denominated pairs. We are through the 50 day EMA, but I imagine there’s probably plenty of buyers between here and 145 yen who are more than willing to try to turn this thing around.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Finally, over here in the Australian Dollar we initially tried to rally but we gave back the gains and now it looks like we are trying to roll over, as the previous channel still finds itself as being influential in this market. But I would also point out the 0.6550 level as an area that is a bit of a problem. You can see it’s been support and resistance so many times in the past. It’s almost like a magnet for price.

At this point though, it doesn’t look like we’re very comfortable going above there and you could see this market roll over. If it does, then it confirms a lower high, and that would be the first sign of a real trend change. Either way, I think the Australian dollar continues to underperform some of its contemporaries against the US dollar.

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