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EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar has Quiet Session

By:
Christopher Lewis
Published: Jul 4, 2025, 13:37 GMT+00:00

The US dollar has been somewhat quiet in early trading on Friday, as the volume will have been down quite a bit due to the holiday in the USA. This is a market that will continue to pay close attention to the Federal Reserve.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has rallied slightly against the us dollar during early trading on Friday, which is, of course, the July 4th holiday in the United States. So, I don’t really know how excited you can get about this price action. But what it tells me is that we still have an overall uptrend intact. There’s no threat of that breaking down. And if we do pull back, the 1.16 level should end up being a major support level. I do believe that this is a buy on the dip market.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The dollar has dropped against the Japanese yen as we continue to trade in the same overall consolidation range. That said, the 142 yen level continues to be a major support level. I think ultimately, it is an area where you would be looking for buyers to jump in.

You’ll also notice that over the last couple of months, we’ve gradually seen higher levels. So, it’ll be interesting to see if we can build up enough pressure to finally break out as the interest rate differential continues to favor the United States.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has dropped a bit as we continue to sit just above that crucial 0.6550 level, which is an area that I’ve been talking about for what seems like a lifetime now. This is a market that just simply doesn’t have anywhere to be, but it is slowly grinding higher. And that’s probably what you need to pay the most attention to.

If we do break down below the 0.6550 level, then we could see this market drop down to the 50-day EMA. But really, I think at that point, you’d just be looking at a value play. We’ve been in this very tight channel that’s been ascending since the middle of April. At this point, there’s nothing on this chart that tells me things are changing.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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