EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar on the Back Foot Early Thursday

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has rallied against the US dollar again in early Thursday trading. But the one thing that I would point out is that we don’t really see much in the way of follow through over the last couple of days. And I think that might continue to be a significant problem. The 1.18 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that offered a lot of resistance. And it’s also worth noting that the Wednesday session on September 17 was the FOMC interest rate decision and statement, as well as the press conference.

During that press conference, the US dollar strengthened, and it has continued to overall since then, although we’ve bounced in the last couple of days. But again, we can’t hang on to these gains. That tells me something. If we can break back above the 1.18 level, fine, the euro continues higher. If we break down below the 50 day EMA and the uptrend line, I’m looking for the 1.16 level, followed by 1.14 below there.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has fallen against the Japanese yen during trading, initially trying to rally on Thursday, but now it looks like we are drifting a little bit lower. We are still very much in a consolidation range. We had a little bit of a fake breakout here about five or six trading sessions ago. And now it looks like we are going to try to figure out whether or not we are still in this range. I think that might actually end up being the case before it’s all said and done. But if we were to break down below 145.50 yen, then the thing comes unraveled.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Thursday, but is giving those gains back again. This is a market that’s hanging around the 0.66 level. And I think now we’re basically just trying to figure out whether or not we are going to re-enter the previous consolidation area. That would not surprise me.

It looks like the Australian dollar just doesn’t have the momentum to continue going higher with any type of speed. At this point, I’m a little bit ambivalent about this pair. I wouldn’t use the word bearish. It’s not quite that bad, but I do think we are more likely to drift lower than significantly higher. That being said, if we could take out the 0.67 level to the upside, that would be extraordinarily bullish.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.