XRP News Today: Bulls Target $2.35 on Dovish Fed Signals and ETF Demand

XRP dipped as traders took profit following Monday’s launch of Franklin XRP ETF and Grayscale XRP ETF. XRP had soared 17% in the lead-up to Monday’s launch, briefly decoupling from BTC, which gained 4% over the same two-day period.

Notably, XRP-spot ETF inflows likely fell short of market expectations, snapping a mini two-day winning streak. Tuesday’s pullback came despite rising bets on a December Fed rate cut, which sent US stock futures higher during the session.

BTC-spot ETFs reported net outflows of $3.69 billion in November, sending Bitcoin to a November 21 low of $80,523. BTC has influenced XRP and the broader market. However, spot ETFs could become the stepping stone toward an XRP-BTC decoupling as market conditions steady.

Franklin Templeton and Grayscale XRP ETFs Take Center Stage

Two highly anticipated XRP-spot ETF launches drew market attention amid volatile crypto market conditions. Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) reported day-one net inflows of $62.59 million, while Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP) saw net inflows of $67.36 million. XRP-spot ETF issuers reported net inflows of $164.04 million on the day.

XRPZ’s relatively modest first day of trading contrasted with market expectations that Franklin Templeton’s prominence in the ETF space would fuel robust institutional demand. Notably, XRPZ’s first-day haul fell short of Canary XRP ETF’s (XRPC) first-day inflows of $243.05 million.

However, BTC-spot ETFs reported net outflows of $151.08 million on Monday, raising the possibility of an XRP-BTC decoupling.

Spot ETF flows for Tuesday, November 25, will be crucial for the Wednesday, November 26, session. Resilient inflows should boost demand for XRP, bringing the $2.35 level into play.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Edge Higher, Signaling a Positive Outlook

While XRP-spot ETF flows faced scrutiny, softer US labor market and retail sales data boosted bets on a December Fed rate cut, limiting the downside.

The ADP reported a 13.5k 4-decline in the four-week weekly average of employment. Rising unemployment may curb wage growth and weigh on consumer sentiment, potentially cooling private consumption. A pullback in consumer spending may also dampen demand-driven inflation.

Weaker labor market data coincided with an unexpected fall in retail sales and softer producer prices, supporting a more dovish Fed rate path.

The retail sales control group fell 0.1% month-on-month in September after rising 0.6% in August. Meanwhile, core producer prices increased 2.6% year-on-year in September, down from 2.9% in August.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a December cut rose from 84.4% on November 24 to 84.8% on November 25. The probability of a December cut stood at 50.1% on November 18.

A more dovish Fed rate path could lift demand for XRP, given the token’s fall below $1.9 amid previously fading bets on Fed rate cuts.

Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels

XRP fell 1.26% on Tuesday, November 25, partially reversing the previous day’s 8.73% rally, closing at $2.2003. The token traced BTC and the broader market, which dropped 1.05% and 0.61%, respectively.

Tuesday’s pullback left the token trading below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bearish bias.

Looking ahead, several key events are likely to influence XRP’s price trajectory.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.2, $2, $1.9112, and $1.8205
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.3764.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.5245.
• Resistance levels: $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Catalysts to Watch in the Sessions Ahead

Near-term price events include:

• XRP-spot ETF daily inflows.
• Blue-chip companies’ views on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.2

• XRP-spot ETFs report net outflows.
• The US Senate delays crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies downplay interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.

These bearish scenarios could push XRP toward $2.2. A break below $2.2 may bring the $2.0 psychological support level into sight. If breached, the $1.9112 support level and lower trendline would be the next key support levels. Tuesday’s decline reaffirmed the bearish structure.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $2.35 Opens

• XRP-spot ETFs see robust inflows.
• Blue-chip companies purchase XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the US Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.

A break above the November 24 high of $2.2872 could pave the way toward the $2.35 resistance level. A sustained move through $2.35 could open the door to testing the 50-day EMA, with the upper trendline and $2.5 the next key resistance levels.

Outlook: $2.35 Resistance in Sight

Rising bets on a December Fed rate cut and robust inflows into XRP-spot ETFs set the stage for a bullish end to the year.

On Wednesday, November 26, US jobs data and FOMC members’ speeches will likely influence the Fed rate path. A more dovish Fed policy stance could boost demand for XRP and spot ETFs, bringing $2.35 into play.

Meanwhile, traders should continue to closely monitor the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill, another potential price catalyst.

The next few sessions could determine whether XRP breaks out from BTC’s shadow and reclaims $2.5.