XRP News Today: ETF Setback Clouds Sentiment, Targets Intact

The US XRP-spot ETF market saw its first day of net outflows on Wednesday, January 7, setting the tone for the session on Thursday, January 8. XRP recorded a three-day losing streak as the broader crypto market entered a consolidation phase after the breakout start to 2026.

Despite the pullback, the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill, robust since launch demand for XRP-spot ETFs, bolstered by the secondary market, and XRP’s real-world utility support a bullish short- to medium-term outlook.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

US XRP-Spot ETF Market Sees First Net Outflows

The US XRP-spot ETF market reported net outflows of $40.8 million on January 7. Notably, the ETF issuers logged their first net outflow day since the launch of the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) on November 14, weighing on sentiment.

The 21Shares XRP ETF (TOXR) ended the XRP-spot ETF market’s golden start, the newest of the five actively trading ETFs. Wednesday’s net outflows left the 21Shares XRP ETF with net outflows of $8.18 million since launch. Meanwhile, the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC), the Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP), the Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ), and the Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP) continued to avoid net outflow days since launch.

Wednesday’s outflows coincided with reports of WisdomTree withdrawing its S-1 form for an XRP-spot ETF and Morgan Stanley snubbing XRP, filing S-1 forms for BTC-spot and SOL-spot ETFs. The 21Shares XRP ETF’s outflows justified WisdomTree withdrawing its S-1 form and Morgan Stanley focusing on BTC and SOL.

Wednesday’s XRP-spot ETF flow trends highlighted the first-to-market advantage enjoyed by XRPC, XRPZ, GXRP, and XRP.

Market Sentiment Signals Point to Potential Reversal

Market intelligence platform Santiment signaled a potential market reversal this week, using BTC as a market proxy, stating:

“After Bitcoin climbed above $94.4k, a heavy pouring of calls for $100k, higher, and above came on social media. As is usually the case, blue high bars mean crowd expects lower prices and are showing FUD, BTC then goes up. Red high bars mean crowd expects higher prices and are showing FUD, BTC then goes down.”

Looking ahead, Santiment added:

“With Bitcoin dropping back to a low of $91.2k on Tuesday, watch to see if the crowd greed cools off. If so, crypto can get right back on track and continue its rebound to $100k and beyond.”

Legislative Tailwinds Support XRP Fundamentals

While XRP faced overbought conditions on January 8, fundamentals are bullish, affirming the bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.

The US Senate Agriculture Committee and Senate Banking Committee Market Structure Bill markups on January 15 are expected to pave the way for crypto-friendly legislation. XRP remains sensitive to legislative developments despite the court rulings in the SEC vs. Ripple case, which classified the token as a non-security.

Crypto in America host Eleanor Terrett dismissed speculation about the absence of bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill, stating:

“The Senate Agriculture Committee worked for months to ensure their discussion draft was bipartisan. Hard to see that effort falling apart in the 11th hour but this is Capitol Hill and anything can happen. Reminder that last summer, the House Agricultural Committee passed its portion of CLARITY with a super bipartisan 47-6 vote”.

For context, XRP soared 14.69% on July 17 after the US House of Representatives passed the Market Structure Bill to the Senate. In early January, XRP rallied 33% to its January 6 high of $2.4151 after the US Banking Committee announced its January 15 Market Structure Bill markup on December 31. Bipartisan votes on January 15 would likely trigger the next XRP rally.

In terms of the process to get the Market Structure Bill to President Trump’s desk, the Crypto Investment Group quoted Eleanor Terrett, who stated:

“It’s slated to pass out of the Senate Banking Committee next week, then get merged with the Senate Agricultural Committee’s portion once that text clears. From there, it heads to the floor for a full Senate vote, back to the House for final passage, and ultimately to President Trump’s desk.”

XRP Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

The progress of the Market Structure Bill and strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs affirmed the bullish short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook, with a $2.5 price target. The US XRP-spot ETF market’s flow trends for January 8 will the tone for the Friday, January 9 session.

Meanwhile, increased real-world utility, bets on a June Fed rate cut, and confidence that the Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill reinforce the bullish longer-term price targets:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.66.

Key Risks Challenge Bullish Outlook

Several scenarios could unravel the positive outlook. These include:

• The Bank of Japan declares a hawkish neutral interest rate (1.5%-2.5%), signaling multiple rate hikes. A higher neutral rate could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, as traders exit their leveraged XRP position.
• US economic data and the Fed are tempering bets on a March rate cut.
• Market Structure Bill faces partisan opposition.
• XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These scenarios would likely fuel a sell-off, sending XRP below $2, which would indicate a bearish trend reversal.

Technical Picture: Caution Near Key Moving Averages

XRP fell 2.01% on January 8, following the previous day’s 5.97% loss, closing at $2.1217. The token came under heavier selling pressure than the broader crypto market cap, which dropped 0.69%.

Three consecutive daily losses left XRP trading below the 200-day EMA, while remaining above the 50-day EMA. While the EMAs indicate a bullish near-term but bearish longer-term bias, the fundamentals remain bullish and dominate.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.0, $1.75, and then $1.50.
• 50-day EMA support: $2.0729.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.3412.
• Resistance levels: $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.

Viewing the daily chart, a break above $2.2 would bring the 200-day EMA into play. A sustained move through the 200-day EMA would indicate a bullish trend reversal, paving the way toward the $2.5 resistance level.

Crucially, a sustained move through the 200-day EMA would reinforce the bullish medium-term outlook and the longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.66 price target.

Fundamental Indicators: US Data, Crypto Legislation, and Spot ETF Flows

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flow trends.
• US economic data and the Fed’s rate path.
• US crypto-related legislative developments.

Holding Above $2.0 Critical for the Constructive Bias

Avoiding a break below the $2 psychological support level will be crucial for the bullish short- to medium-term outlook. Positive fundamentals continue to counter bearish near-term technicals, indicating a breakout. Despite this week’s pullback, the early January rally has reaffirmed the bullish structure and constructive short- to medium-term bias.

A breakout above the upper trendline would validate the bullish structure and confirm the bullish trend reversal, supporting the price targets:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8–12 weeks): target of $3.66.

However, a drop below $2.0 would expose the lower trendline. A sustained fall through the lower trendline would invalidate the bullish structure, signaling a bearish trend reversal.

Outlook:

Looking ahead, the US jobs report, central bank commentary, crypto-related regulatory developments, and XRP-spot ETF flow trends will influence the near-term price outlook.

Increased bets on a March Fed rate cut, and a dovish BoJ neutral rate (1%-1.25%) would likely lift sentiment. Strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs and bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the bullish outlook.

In summary, resilient institutional demand for XRP-spot ETFs and crypto-related legislative developments support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $3.0. A March Fed rate cut and the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the longer-term (8–12 weeks) price target of $3.66.

Looking beyond the 12-week time horizon, these key events are likely to drive XRP above its all-time high $3.66. A break above $3.66 would affirm $5 as the next key price target over a 6- to 12-month timeline.