EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Softens Slightly in Early Trading

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro rallied slightly from the 200-day EMA on Wednesday in a continuation of the recovery that we had started to see late during the day on Tuesday. All things being equal, this is a market that I think is trying to find support at 1.16 and trying to keep somewhat alive to the upside.

But you should also keep in mind that this is a market that has been oversold over the last couple of days. So, the question then becomes whether or not this is just an oversold bounce.

A short-term rally that shows signs of exhaustion could be an opportunity to start selling if we cannot break above the 1.18 level, as there are a multitude of reasons to be a little risk-averse at the moment.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar has pulled back just a bit against the 158–yen level. That is not a huge surprise as this is an area that has been important multiple times, perhaps extending all the way to the 160-yen level. If we can break above the 160-yen level, that would be a breakout that goes all the way back to 1990, so it is a bit foolish to think that that would happen easily.

A pullback from here, I am looking to buy, maybe closer to the 50-day EMA. I think a couple of days of negativity would probably do this pair some good as it had started to get a little overdone to the upside over the last couple of weeks. Remember, though, the interest rate differential still pays if you are holding dollars.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has been all over the place and it does look like it is trying to perhaps strengthen and challenge the well-defined resistance area near the 0.71 level.

If we can clear that, then the Aussie dollar could find its way up to the 0.7250 level. Ultimately, I think this is a market that will remain very choppy and noisy, but I do favor buying dips as the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue to be hawkish. As a result, I think this is a little bit of an outlier when it comes to US-related pairs.