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U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Initial Jobless Claims Rise To 225,000: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Jun 4, 2026, 16:46 GMT+00:00

Falling oil prices reduced demand for safe-haven assets, which was bearish for the American currency.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As Traders Focus On Job Market Data

DXY 040626 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders react to the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 225,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 213,000.

In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the 50 MA at 99.16, it will head towards the nearest support level, which is located in the 98.85 – 99.00 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 98.00 – 98.15.

EUR/USD Tests The 50 MA At 1.1633

EUR/USD 040626 4h Chart

EUR/USD gained ground despite the weaker-than-expected Euro Area Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Euro Area Retail Sales decreased by -0.4% month-over-month in April, compared to analyst forecast of -0.3%.

Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle above the 50 MA at 1.1633. In case this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will head towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 1.1665 – 1.1680 range.

On the support side, a move below the support at 1.1585 – 1.1600 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.1500 – 1.1515.

GBP/USD Gains Ground Amid Falling Oil Prices

GBP/USD 040626 4h Chart

GBP/USD moved higher as traders ignored the weak UK Construction PMI report. The report showed that UK Construction PMI declined from 39.7 in April to 38.2 in May, compared to analyst consensus of 40.2.

Traders focused on the strong pullback in the oil markets, which provided support to risk assets. Oil prices are losing ground as traders bet that U.S. and Iran are moving towards a deal despite Iran’s recent comments. Iran said that there was no progress in talks with the U.S.

GBP/USD attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.3450 – 1.3465. This resistance level has been tested many times and proved its strength. A move above the 1.3465 level will push GBP/USD towards the next resistance at 1.3535 – 1.3550. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.

USD/CAD Moves Away From Multi-Week Highs

USD/CAD 040626 4h Chart

USD/CAD is mostly flat despite the pullback in the oil markets. Traders take some profits off the table near multi-week highs.

The nearest support level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.3860 – 1.3875 range. If USD/CAD declines below the 1.3860 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3833. A move below the 50 MA will push USD/CAD towards the next support at 1.3775 – 1.3790.

USD/JPY Remains Stuck Near The Key 160.00 Level

USD/JPY 040626 4h Chart

USD/JPY continues its attempts to settle above the key 160.00 level as traders stay bullish despite the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined below the 4.05% level, whiile the yield of 10-year Treasuries pulled back towards 4.46%.

A successful test of the 160.00 level will push USD/JPY towards the resistance at 161.50 – 162.00. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in the near term. Traders should keep in mind that BoJ may try to defend the yen, although it remains to be seen whether Bank will act as its recent attempts to support the national currency failed.

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About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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