EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Trying to Stabilize

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has pulled back just a touch against the US dollar early in the Monday session, although I would not read too much into the price action. The 1.16 level, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course, an area where we’ve seen some action previously. So, I think you just have a quiet market that’s looking for some reason to get moving. It just really hasn’t found it.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has drifted a little bit lower against the Japanese yen, only to turn around and show signs of life. But I think right now we’re at a very important level for the dollar against the yen, as the 148 yen level and the 146 yen level, both have caused quite a bit of noise.

I think we are trying to sort out whether or not we can actually take off to the upside. But I don’t know if it’s going to be easy. We have to break above that nasty candlestick on Friday to truly get bullish and if we break down below 146 yen, then we could drop down to the 143 yen level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

And finally in the Australian dollar, it looks like we are testing the 50 day EMA, but don’t really have anywhere to be quite yet. This is a market that had been in a pretty significant channel for a while. And now I think we’re just trying to figure out whether or not the US dollar is going to start flexing its muscles or was that yet another fake out? The Federal Reserve got some bad jobs data on Friday, but at the same time, they seem pretty steadfast in their waiting on the data scenario.

So, I think ultimately at this point in time, if the market breaks down below the lows of the last couple of days, we could see the Australian dollar driving towards the 0.63 level. Or if we break above the 50 day EMA, we could be looking at 0.6550 again, and then the 0.66 level. Either way, I don’t think you get rapid moves. I think this is going to be a grind more than anything else.

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