EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – Euro Continues to Break Down

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 09.10.23

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The euro has broken down significantly during the course of the week as we have seriously threatened the 1.05 level. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see this area as important, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. If we break down below the bottom of the weekly candlestick, then the market is likely to go looking to the 1.0250 level, followed by the parity level. Rallies at this point in time continue to be selling opportunities given enough time, and therefore, I think you’ve got a situation where short-term rallies offer plenty of selling opportunities to pick up “cheap US dollars.”

Ultimately, if we do break above the top of the weekly candlestick, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the 50-Week EMA above, but I think that is going to be difficult to reach. All things being equal, this is a market that I think given enough time, there will be plenty of downward pressure as we have obviously broken down significantly.

The market has been very noisy over the last couple of weeks and has been in a bit of a freefall, so I do think that it’s probably only a matter time before we see an attempt to recover things, but all things being equal, that will only end up being a nice opportunity as the European Union is likely to continue screaming down the road toward a recession, and I just don’t see how that changes anytime soon. With this, I remain bearish, but I also recognize that markets don’t go in one direction forever, and therefore you want to tactically enter euro shorts.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.