EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – Euro Starting to Get a Little Overstretched

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 17.04.23

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Euro initially pulled back just a bit during the trading week, breaking below the 1.09 level. However, by the end of the week we have seen the market turn right back around to show strength again, as the market participants seemingly are hell-bent on selling off the US dollar. That being said, it is probably worth noting that the retail sales number in the United States came out weaker than anticipated. Because of this, it looks like there’s been a run toward the US dollar and the relative safety of it, and Friday has been a bit of weakness. Whether or not that sticks remains to be seen, but it clearly is a situation where we have a lot of noise ahead of us.

Breaking above the 200-Week EMA opens up the possibility of a move to the 1.1250 level, an area that has been important multiple times. In that scenario, we could very well have a move that extends all the way to the 1.15 level, but this would assume that we will continue to see the oversold conditions of the dollar remain. Things are getting a bit stretched, so it would make a certain amount of sense to see a bit of a pullback anyway. With that being the case, you would anticipate seeing a certain amount of value hunters coming into the picture and trying to get long again.

With this, the market is likely to continue seeing a lot of volatility, as traders wish for one thing, but seemingly the Federal Reserve is ignoring them. As long as that’s going to be the case, you could see a lot of volatility in this market, so therefore your position sizing will be crucial. That’s going to be true in this market, and just about anything else you are trading at the moment. The uncertainty out there is palpable, and therefore has created very difficult trading environments for most raters. The 50-Week EMA is just above the 1.06 level, so it might be worth paying close attention to as a potential target as well.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.