The Euro initially tried to rally during the week but then turned around to show signs of weakness. The downtrend line has held, and it looks as if the down trending channel is still influential.
The Euro has initially tried to rally during the week, but struggled at the top of the channel, and rollover rather significantly. By doing so it shows that the Euro is still struggling, and I doubt it’s going to be a scenario where things get a change suddenly. That doesn’t necessarily mean that we are going to break down drastically, but the Euro is going to continue the channel that it’s in and perhaps reach towards the 1.10 level underneath. The market breaking down below there will probably then shoot down to the 1.09 level. Overall, this is a market that will continue to be noisy and I do think that the downside will continue to win. However, if we were to break above the 1.12 level, then it’s likely that the market will go looking towards the 1.14 level where we see the 200 week EMA.
All things being equal though this is the time of year where very little happens, and we will probably simply go back and forth. Longer-term traders should favor the downside when it comes to the Euro, but as you can see over the last couple of years it has been more of a back-and-forth affair with the downward tone than anything else. The European Central Bank continues its loose monetary policy stance, and unless the Federal Reserve suddenly starts loosening monetary policy, it’s likely to continue to be the same type of market going forward. That being said though, if we break above the 1.12 handle, it’s likely that we will see the beginning of an attempt at a trend change.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.