U.S. Dollar Index tests new highs as traders react to the better-than-expected JOLTs Job Openings report and ignore the weak GDP Growth Rate report.
The report indicated that JOLTs Job Openings increased from 6.55 million (revised from 6.542 million) in December to 6.946 million in January, compared to analyst forecast of 6.7 million.
GDP Growth Rate was +0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared to analyst forecast of +1.4%. Treasury yields move higher despite the weaker-than-expected GDP Growth Rate data as traders bet that high oil prices will force the Fed to keep rates unchanged.
Traders also focused on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. The report showed that Consumer Sentiment decreased from 56.6 in February to 55.5 in March, compared to analyst consensus of 55.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index attempts to settle above the resistance at 100.35 – 100.50. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 101.10 – 101.25 range.
EUR/USD retreats as traders react to the weak Euro Area Industrial Production report. The report showed that Euro Area Industrial Production decreased by -1.5% month-over-month in January, compared to analyst forecast of +0.6%.
Traders also focus on high oil prices, which will put significant pressure on the European economy.
In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the support level at 1.1450 – 1.1465, it will move towards the next support at 1.1385 – 1.1400.
GBP/USD is under pressure as traders react to the GDP report from the UK. The report showed that GDP was unchanged in January, compared to analyst consensus of +0.2%.
Traders also focused on the UK Industrial Production report. The report showed that Industrial Production declined by -0.1% month-over-month in January, compared to analyst forecast of +0.2%.
GBP/USD attempts to settle below the support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265. If GBP/USD manages to settle below 1.3250, it will head towards the next support at 1.3170 – 1.3185.
USD/CAD rallied as traders focused on the strong pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined below the $5050 level, while silver pulled back towards the $80.00 level.
Other commodity-related currencies have also found themselves under significant pressure in today’s trading session.
In case USD/CAD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.3720 – 1.3735, it will move towards the next resistance level at 1.3800 – 1.3815.
USD/JPY is moving higher as traders react to economic reports from the U.S. and focus on geopolitical developments.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and Brent oil is trading near the $100 level. Japan’s economy is dependent on energy imports, so high oil and natural gas prices will hurt growth. Thus, BoJ will not be able to raise rates despite inflation, which is bearish for the Japanese yen.
There are no signs of interventions from the Bank of Japan, and it looks that the central bank does not believe that it can defend current levels. In this environment, traders are ready to bet that USD/JPY could gain more ground in the upcoming trading sessions.
A move above the psychologically important 160.00 level will push USD/JPY towards the nearest resistance, which is located in the 161.50 – 162.00 range.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.