US Dollar Price Forecast: Fed Splits 4 Ways – Can GBP/USD and EUR/USD Still Push Higher?

US Dollar : Safe-Haven Demand Given A Fresh Boost By Fed Caution on Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve chose to leave the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% on the 29th of April with a record high level of disagreement – four members actually voted against the decision, and its been a while since we last saw anything like that – since 1992 in fact.

The Fed is worried about the high price of oil and all the disruption that’s been going on in the Strait of Hormuz as well as the fact that the US and Iran arent talking to each other either – all of which is making some pretty persistent inflation risks.

According to Chair Powell a very data-driven approach is guiding policy – which is tempering expectations for any short term interest rate cuts and at the same time making the dollar look more attractive as a safe-haven asset and as a beneficiary of the old “higher for longer” policy.

Euro : ECB Hold In The Offing As Energy Prices Start Complicating Things

Everyone and their dog is tipping the ECB to keep its deposit facility rate at 2.00% when they meet on the 30th of April. But even though inflation has ticked up to 2.6% with all the higher energy prices around, there is actually some pretty hawkish voices on the ECBs Governing Council saying that they need to keep an eye on things before making any decisions.

To add to the whole mix, growth predictions for 2026 are pretty much in line with expectations at around 0.9% – but still with a bit of a balanced outlook.

Pound : BoE Faces Sticky Inflation Ahead Of Their Meeting In May

UK inflation is still pretty high at 3.3% year on year as of March, with services taking a big hit too. The Bank of England is still expected to hold at 3.75% on the 1st of May – it`s a tricky balancing act between the high price of oil and the fact that the labour market is actually getting a bit softer. UK growth still looks pretty strong compared to the Eurozone though which is a bit of a silver lining.

Tensions are running high and central banks are sending out different signals which is why the dollar is still doing pretty well against both the euro and the pound.

DXY Dollar Index Analysis – Descending Triangle Pressure Keeps Bulls Capped Below 99.18

The DXY is stuck at 98.68, wedged beneath a decent-looking descending trendline that’s been slowly closing in on price since late March. The index managed to bounce back pretty quickly from that April 9 low near 97.49 but has been struggling to get back above 99.18 for some time now.

Both the moving averages are starting to flatten out with the red one now perched just above price – and that’s sending up a small warning sign that things might be turning a bit bearish. The RSI recovery momentum’s not quite convincing enough to get the bulls all excited about a breakout.

A clean close above 99.18 would have a pretty good chance of forcing the descending trendline at 99.53 to give way. But if price can’t even hold 98.24 then it’s looking like the 97.82 and 97.49 support zones are going to be making a comeback.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis – Pound Tests Ascending Trendline at 1.3500 After Pullback

GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.35004 after pulling back from that April 14 multi-month high near 1.3588 and is now having another test of the ascending trendline at 1.3500 – which has been guiding price higher since late March. Both moving averages are still pretty bullish overall – though the red one is starting to roll over a bit, which is a sign that short-term consolidation could be just around the corner.

The RSI has dropped back down to around 45–50 and that indicates that sellers are probably in control for now but they’re not totally dominant. Key support levels to keep an eye on are 1.3455 and 1.3381. A bounce and close above 1.3526 would be a big win for the bulls, while a break below the ascending trendline would open up the door to that 1.3312–1.3245 demand zone.

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Pair Holds Above Trendline Support at 1.1657 as RSI Recovers

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.16942 – having pulled back a bit from that April 21 peak near 1.1848 but so far the pair is managing to find support along the ascending trendline at 1.1657. The 200-period blue MA is propping up price around 1.1614 and while the red MA is starting to curl over – that’s still not enough to give the bears the upper hand.

The RSI did dip down into that 30–35 zone and is now slowly working its way back up – which could be a sign that a potential bounce is just around the corner. Right now the resistance levels to watch are 1.1717, then 1.1756 and 1.1798. To get some momentum back the bulls are going to need a decisive close above 1.1717. If price instead breaks below the trendline and 1.1614 MA support then the bias shifts back to 1.1574.