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Christopher Lewis

The Euro has initially tried to rally during the week, but then broke down significantly at the 50 week EMA and sliced through the 1.10 level after that to break down significantly. The Euro of course has shown quite a bit of negativity over the longer term, and the increased volatility generally means that people are looking for safety. When people look for safety, it’s very likely that the US dollar gets a bid. Furthermore, the European Union is showing a very poor economic figures, and therefore it’s likely that we continue to see the Euro sold in general.

EUR/USD Video 06.04.20

At this point, I think it’s easier to short this market on shorter time frames on rallies that fail. The longer-term trader will have to deal with a lot of choppy conditions. That being said, it is still a very negative market and should be looked at as such. Even if we do try to turn things around, the market will be very noisy in the process.

Keep in that in mind, the overall risk aversion that we are seeing in the markets. That being said, the Friday jobs number did almost nothing to price, as we already know that the US economy is freezing up. This drives more money into treasuries, which will drive up the value of the US dollar in a bit of a feedback loop. At this point, I do not trust rallies until we wipe out the highs from the last couple of candlesticks. At that point, the market is likely to go towards the 1.15 level again. At this point, the trend is still negative although noisy.

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