EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis August 19, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP  dipped a bit today to trade at 0.8534 on sentiment trades. The only data in the eurozone was CPI which printed at forecast. The UK currency remained strong after two weeks of strong data culminated this week with jobs and retail sales printing better than expected while the eurozone emerged from its recession.   Euro-zone imports increased 2.5 percent in June after a 2.1 percent decrease the prior month, and the trade surplus increased to 14.9 billion euros ($19.9 billion) from 13.8 billion euros.

Exports from France, the second-biggest euro-area economy, fell 1.7 percent, while Italian shipments rose 1.4 percent, today’s data showed. Spanish exports dropped 2.4 percent. The 1.6 percent inflation rate matched an initial estimate on July 31. It is the sixth straight month that the rate has been less than the ECB’s 2 percent ceiling. Gross domestic product in the euro area rose 0.3 percent in the April-June period after a 0.3 percent contraction in the previous three months, the statistics office said on Aug. 14. Germany and France both showed faster-than-projected expansions in the quarter. Still, the recession has pushed the unemployment rate to a record 12.1 percent and areas of southern Europe remain in a slump, with more than half of young people in Spain and Greece out of work as reported by Reuters.

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Economic Data August 16, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

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