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Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP added 29 points to trade at 0.7328 as the euro traded flat. The UK saw good news meeting GDP expectations while business investment climbed. Euro-area economic confidence unexpectedly rose in August, defying a slowdown in China and renewed political uncertainty in Greece.

An index of executive and consumer confidence increased to 104.2 in August from 104 in July, the European Commission said on Friday.

Economists predicted a decline to 103.8, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The report follows a roller-coaster week for global markets on concerns China’s slowdown is deepening.

For the euro area, “the pick-up in confidence suggests the recovery is continuing consistent with positive domestic fundamentals,” said Nick Kounis, an economist at ABN Amro Bank in Amsterdam, while noting that the survey would not have captured the most-recent market turmoil.

Sentiment among consumers improved to minus 6.9 from minus 7.2, the commission report showed. Confidence in the services sector increased to 10.2 from 8.9 and beat the median estimate of 8.8 in a Bloomberg survey.

Upcoming Greek elections could add to concerns. While Alexis Tsipras’s Syriza party is expected to win the September 20 vote, there are doubts about his ability to implement reforms in return for an 86 billion-euro ($97 billion) international rescue package agreed in July, after seven months of negotiations.

The initial figure released in July was boosted by a sharp rise in oil and gas production. As expected, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday made no change to the reading for the three months to June. It was higher than the 0.4% growth recorded for the first quarter of the year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (YoY) (Jul)

-0.2%

1.3%

-2.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (MoM) (Jul)

0.6%

2.2%

-3.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Jobs/applications ratio (Jul)

1.21

1.19

1.19

 

 

  JPY

 

National Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)

0.0%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Aug)

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)

1.6%

1.1%

0.9%

 

 

  CHF

 

GDP (YoY) (Q2)

1.2%

0.9%

1.2%

   

  CHF

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

0.2%

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Aug)  

-0.4%

-0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Aug)  

-0.5%

-0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2) 

2.9%

1.7%

2.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q2)  

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Aug)  

0.0%

-0.1%

0.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

1.2%

1.3%

1.3%

 

 

  USD

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul)

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Goods Trade Balance (Jul)

-59.12B

 

-62.26B

 

 

  USD

 

Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul)

0.3%

0.4%

0.3%

   

  CAD

 

RMPI (MoM) (Jul)

-5.9%

-4.0%

0.2%

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, August 31, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday

  NZD

 

Building Consents (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

-4.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

1.1%

 

 

  AUD

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

 

 

0.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

0.4%

 

 

  CHF

 

KOF Leading Indicators (Aug)

 

 

99.8

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Aug)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Current Account (Q2)

 

 

-17.5B

 

 

  USD

 

Chicago PMI (Aug)

 

54.5

54.7

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 28 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt

Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep

 

 

 

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