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EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – February 17, 2016
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Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP is up 4 points at 0.7733 as the gains of the euro outpaced that of the pound. The GBP saw limited gains after
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP is up 4 points at 0.7733 as the gains of the euro outpaced that of the pound. The GBP saw limited gains after PPI data printed better than forecast. The euro bounced on ZEW consumer confidence. The euro’s gains were held in check after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Monday the bank would not hesitate to act in March, reinforcing expectations for additional stimulus measures.
Meanwhile, data on Tuesday showed that German economic sentiment fell sharply this month, amid concerns over falling oil prices, slowing global growth and heightened market volatility.
The ZEW index of German economic sentiment fell to 1 this month from 10.2 in January, but was still slightly better than economists’ forecasts for a reading of zero.
Sterling rose to the day’s highs after an opinion poll for the U.K.’s ITV television network showed that there was a clear majority in favor of Britain remaining in the European Union.
The pound received an additional boost from data showing that the annual rate of inflation in the U.K. rose to a one-year high in January.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.
Today’s economic releases:
| Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |||
| NZD | Core Retail Sales (QoQ) | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | |||
| NZD | Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4) | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | |||
| AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ||||||
| CNY | New Loans (Jan) | 2,510.0B | 1,800.0B | 597.8B | |||
| NZD | Inflation Expectations (QoQ) | 1.6% | 1.9% | ||||
| GBP | CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | |||
| GBP | CPI (MoM) (Jan) | -0.8% | -0.7% | 0.1% | |||
| GBP | PPI Input (MoM) (Jan) | -0.7% | -1.4% | -0.3% | |||
| EUR | German ZEW Current Conditions (Feb) | 52.3 | 55.5 | 59.7 | |||
| EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | 1.0 | 3.2 | 10.2 | |||
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | 13.6 | 10.3 | 22.7 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
| Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |||
| USD | TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Dec) | 31.4B | |||||
| USD | FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks | ||||||
| GBP | Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) | 1.9% | 2.0% | ||||
| GBP | Claimant Count Change (Jan) | -3.0K | -4.3K | ||||
| GBP | Unemployment Rate (Dec) | 5.0% | 5.1% | ||||
| USD | Building Permits (Jan) | 1.200M | 1.204M | ||||
| USD | Core PPI (MoM) (Jan) | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||||
| USD | Housing Starts (Jan) | 1.177M | 1.149M | ||||
| USD | Housing Starts (MoM) (Jan) | 2.5% | -2.5% | ||||
| USD | PPI (MoM) (Jan) | -0.2% | -0.2% | ||||
| CAD | Foreign Securities Purchases (Dec) | 2.58B | |||||
| USD | Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) | 0.4% | -0.4% | ||||
| USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time and Country
Feb 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Feb 17 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction
Feb 17 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn 0.5% Feb 2026 Bund
Feb 17 11:30 UK New Jul 2026 Gilt auction
Feb 18 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction
Feb 18 11:50 France Holds bond auction
Feb 18 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on Feb 25
Feb 19 11:10 Italy Details of BTP€i/Zero-coupon auction
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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