The EUR/GBP closed at .7580, down 0.0031 or -0.41% as traders continued to react to polls showing that most Brits want to remain a member of the European
The EUR/GBP closed at .7580, down 0.0031 or -0.41% as traders continued to react to polls showing that most Brits want to remain a member of the European Union. The charts suggest this market is likely to continue to drop until at least .7549 to .7416.
The “Brexit” theme continues to dominate the market. Prices have fallen sharply over the past week as polls continue to show a growing number of Brits prefer that Britain remain a member of the European Union.
The latest poll conducted by the ORB for the Daily Telegraph suggests that “Remain” is building a big lead in the Brexit vote. 50% of respondents said they back staying in the EU, compared to just 42% who said they want to leave.
The referendum will take place on June 23.
The Euro posted a limited reaction to reports showing better-than-expected results from Germany. GfK German Consumer Climate for June came in at 9.8, besting its 9.7 estimate. German Business Expectations for May were 101.6, better than the 100.8 forecast. German Current Assessment for May came in at 114.2, higher than the 113.2 estimate. German IFO Business Climate Index for May was 107.7, beating the 106.8 forecast.
Traders also failed to respond to the news that Euro Zone finance ministers agreed with Greece and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on what they called a “breakthrough” deal that will address Athens’ requests for debt relief.
Late Wednesday, the Eurogroup ministers agreed to release 10.3 billion Euros ($11.42 billion) for Greece after Athens agreed to a package of painful austerity and reform measures over the weekend.
The price action suggests EUR/GBP traders are going to be focused primarily on the Brexit polls until the referendum in June. The volatility and direction of the Forex pair will be determined by the results of these pools so at times we could experience a choppy, two-sided trade.
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Today’s economic releases:
Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
USD | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -5.137M | -3.300M | -1.140M |
USD | API Weekly Cushing Crude Oil Stock | -0.189M | -0.950M | 0.508M |
NZD | Trade Balance (MoM) (Apr) | 292M | 60M | 117M |
NZD | Trade Balance (YoY) (Apr) | -3,660M | -3,940M | -3,380M |
AUD | Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q1) | -2.6% | -1.5% | -3.6% |
EUR | GfK German Consumer Climate (Jun) | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.7 |
EUR | German Business Expectations (May) | 101.6 | 100.8 | 100.4 |
EUR | German Current Assessment (May) | 114.2 | 113.2 | 113.2 |
EUR | German Ifo Business Climate Index (May) | 107.7 | 106.8 | 106.6 |
EUR | EU Finance Ministers Meeting | |||
USD | Goods Trade Balance (Apr) | -57.53B | -60.10B | -56.90B |
USD | FOMC Member Harker Speaks | |||
USD | Services PMI (May) | 51.2 | 53.1 | 52.8 |
CAD | Interest Rate Decision | 0.50% | 0.50% | |
USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -4.226M | -2.450M | 1.310M |
USD | Cushing Crude Oil Inventories | -0.649M | 0.461M | |
USD | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | |||
USD | FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks | |||
AUD | Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q1) | -3.0% | 0.8% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Thursday, May 26, 2016
Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
GBP | BBA Mortgage Approvals | 44.8K | 45.1K | |
GBP | Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.1% | -2.0% | |
GBP | GDP (YoY) (Q1) | 2.1% | 2.1% | |
GBP | GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
USD | FOMC Member Bullard Speaks | |||
USD | Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) | 0.3% | -0.2% | |
USD | Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 275K | 278K | |
AUD | RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks | |||
USD | Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
USD | FOMC Member Powell Speaks | |||
AUD | RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks | |||
JPY | National Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) | -0.4% | -0.3% | |
JPY | Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (May) | -0.4% | -0.3% |
Government Bond Auctions
May 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 3.5% 2022 & Sek 3bn 1% 2026 bonds
May 25 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction
May 25 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Jul 2044 Bund
May 25 19:00 US Holds 5Yr Notes Auction, 2Yr FRN
May 26 11:10 Italy Announces details of bond auction
May 26 11:10 Italy Holds Zero-coupon/BTPei auction
May 26 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on Jun 02
May 26 19:00 US Holds 7Yr Notes Auction
May 30 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction
Jun 01 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction
Jun 01 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Apr 2021 Bobl
Jun 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt
Jun 01 17:20 Sweden Announces details of bond auction on Jun 08
Jun 02 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction
Jun 02 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Jun 02 11:50 France Holds bond auction
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.