EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 3 – 7, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 3 - 7, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.

The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
European and UK economic data
Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP followed global markets and remained in a fairly tight range trading at 0.8109 to close the week after beginning on Monday at 0.8093 remaining in a 16pip range. The euros strengthened against the crosses after successful completion of a Greek funding package was signed off on, on Monday. There was little other news this week except from Spanish banks and their requirement of 37billion euros in aid. The sterling got a bounce after 3rdQ GDP met expectations at 1% surprising traders.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Nov 30, 2012	0.8109	0.8088	0.8132	0.8088	0.26%
Nov 29, 2012	0.8088	0.8088	0.8113	0.8082	0.01%
Nov 28, 2012	0.8087	0.8077	0.8091	0.8062	0.14%
Nov 27, 2012	0.8076	0.8101	0.8110	0.8060	-0.31%
Nov 26, 2012	0.8101	0.8093	0.8114	0.8081	0.10%

No changes in policy directions are expected for either the Bank of England or the ECB on Thursday for the rate decisions, the BoE’s asset purchase target, or the outline of the ECB’s offered Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) scheme otherwise known as the conditional bond buying program. The prudent thing for global central banks to do is likely to keep some powder dry amid uncertainties into the new year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of November 26 – 30 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Nov. 26	CHF	Employment Level	4.12M	4.09M	4.07M
	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.9	6.2	6.1
Nov. 27	GBP	Business Investment (QoQ)	3.7%	1.3%	0.9%
	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%
	GBP	GDP (YoY)	-0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.5%	-0.5%	1.7%
	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.0%	-0.6%	9.2%
	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	73.7	73.0	73.1
Nov. 28	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.0%
	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%	2.0%
	USD	New Home Sales	368K	390K	369K
Nov. 29	CHF	GDP (QoQ)	0.6%	0.2%	-0.1%
	GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%
	EUR	German Unemployment Change	5K	15K	19K
	EUR	Italian 10-Year BTP Auction	4.45%		4.92%
	GBP	CBI Distributive Trades Survey	33	18	30
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	393K	390K	416K
	USD	GDP (QoQ)	2.7%	2.8%	2.0%
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3287K	3323K	3357K
	USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	5.2%	0.8%	0.4%
Nov. 30	EUR	French Consumer Spending (MoM)	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.1%
	CHF	KOF Leading Indicators	1.50	1.60	1.64
	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.4%	2.5%
	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	-0.2%	0.2%	0.8%

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 03	08:15	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	4.1%	5.4%
	08:30	CHF	SVME PMI	47.0	46.1
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	51.3	51.7
Dec. 05	10:00	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.2%
	13:15	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	125K	158K
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	2.7%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	-0.9%	-0.1%
	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.5	54.2
Dec. 06	08:15	CHF	CPI (MoM)		0.1%
	09:30	GBP	Trade Balance	-8.8B	-8.4B
	10:00	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.1%	-0.1%
	11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	0.9%	-3.3%
	12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%
	12:00	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B
	12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%
Dec. 07	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.7%	-1.7%
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-0.2%	0.1%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-0.6%	-2.6%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	-1.8%