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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 1 – 5, 2013 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP closed the month at 0.8558 remaining within a tight range this week after opening at 0.8518 the pair
The EUR/GBP closed the month at 0.8558 remaining within a tight range this week after opening at 0.8518 the pair traded between a low of 0.8470 and a high of 0.8590 a range of 120 pips, but stayed in the center of that range most of the week. The improvement in business and consumer confidence indicators is good news for activity in the immediate month or two for the euro. It will be crucial to see whether the sharp increase in bond yields over the last week or so derails this recent improvement in mood. Combined with labor market conditions remaining weak, traders can expect ECB to remain dovish at next week’s press conference.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Jun 28, 2013 |
0.8558 |
0.8545 |
0.8590 |
0.8543 |
0.15% |
|
Jun 27, 2013 |
0.8545 |
0.8498 |
0.8560 |
0.8492 |
0.55% |
|
Jun 26, 2013 |
0.8498 |
0.8486 |
0.8499 |
0.8470 |
0.14% |
|
Jun 25, 2013 |
0.8486 |
0.8500 |
0.8512 |
0.8472 |
-0.16% |
|
Jun 24, 2013 |
0.8500 |
0.8518 |
0.8542 |
0.8483 |
-0.21% |
The pound tumbled hard this week as the change in leadership at the Bank of England became official and Chancellor Osborne introduced the new budget, which showed more cuts and austerity. There was little movement in this pair as the US dollar was the market controller this week.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of June 24 – 28 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 24 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
105.9 |
105.9 |
105.7 |
|
|
EUR |
German Current Assessment |
109.4 |
109.6 |
110.0 |
|
|
EUR |
German Business Expectations |
102.5 |
102.0 |
101.6 |
|
Jun. 25 |
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
36.1K |
33.1K |
33.0K |
|
|
GBP |
CBI Distributive Trades Survey |
1 |
-1 |
-11 |
|
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.7% |
-0.1% |
1.7% |
|
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
3.6% |
3.0% |
3.6% |
|
|
USD |
House Price Index (YoY) |
7.4% |
7.2% |
|
|
|
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
81.4 |
75.4 |
74.3 |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
476K |
462K |
466K |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales (MoM) |
2.1% |
1.3% |
3.3% |
|
Jun. 26 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
6.8 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
|
|
EUR |
French GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) |
1.3% |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.8% |
2.4% |
2.4% |
|
Jun. 27 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
-12K |
8K |
17K |
|
|
GBP |
Business Investment (QoQ) |
-1.9% |
-0.4% |
-0.4% |
|
|
GBP |
Current Account |
-14.5B |
-11.8B |
-13.6B |
|
|
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
GDP (YoY) |
0.3% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
|
EUR |
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
4.55% |
4.14% |
|
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
346K |
345K |
355K |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
2965K |
2950K |
2966K |
|
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
6.7% |
1.0% |
-0.5% |
|
Jun. 28 |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
-0.5% |
|
|
CHF |
KOF Leading Indicators |
1.16 |
1.19 |
1.09 |
|
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.8% |
1.7% |
1.5% |
|
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
51.6 |
56.0 |
58.7 |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
84.1 |
82.8 |
82.7 |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul. 01 |
02:00 |
CNY |
50.00 |
50.80 |
|
|
|
02:45 |
CNY |
48.3 |
||
|
|
08:43 |
EUR |
47.8 |
47.3 |
|
|
|
08:48 |
EUR |
48.3 |
48.3 |
|
|
|
08:53 |
EUR |
48.7 |
48.7 |
|
|
|
08:58 |
EUR |
48.7 |
48.7 |
|
|
|
09:28 |
GBP |
51.5 |
51.3 |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
50.5 |
49.0 |
|
|
Jul. 02 |
09:30 |
GBP |
51.1 |
50.8 |
|
|
Jul. 03 |
09:28 |
GBP |
54.5 |
54.9 |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
153K |
135K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-40.0B |
-40.3B |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
54.0 |
53.7 |
|
|
Jul. 04 |
12:00 |
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
375B |
375B |
|
|
|
12:45 |
EUR |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
Jul. 05 |
11:00 |
EUR |
1.2% |
-2.3% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
||
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
167K |
175K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
180K |
178K |
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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