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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis May 26 – 30, 2014 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP declined all week as the pound gained momentum on more positive economic data while the euro continued to
The EUR/GBP declined all week as the pound gained momentum on more positive economic data while the euro continued to decline on weak worrisome data as the ECB is now being forced to offer up some stimulus at its next meeting. The pair is trading at 0.8094. Most of the rest of the week will be about biding time ahead of the June 5th ECB meeting the following week and with a few ECB speeches to ponder along that path. The overall view is that the ECB is likely to introduce new stimulus measures in June such as cuts in both policy rates, perhaps ceasing to sterilize past initiatives, a relatively token ABS-focused buying program, and maybe an LTRO targeting credit in an ECB twist on the BoE’s funding for lending scheme. The most likely scenario is to cut both policy rates
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
May 23, 2014 |
0.8094 |
0.8095 |
0.8104 |
0.8082 |
-0.01% |
|
May 22, 2014 |
0.8095 |
0.8097 |
0.8112 |
0.8086 |
-0.02% |
|
May 21, 2014 |
0.8097 |
0.8139 |
0.8145 |
0.8086 |
-0.52% |
|
May 20, 2014 |
0.8139 |
0.8155 |
0.8157 |
0.8120 |
-0.20% |
|
May 19, 2014 |
0.8155 |
0.8145 |
0.8158 |
0.8141 |
0.12% |
Sterling had jetted higher earlier this week on a handful of more bullish signals on the British economy, which is outstripping most of its neighbors in Europe, solidifying expectations of a rise in interest rates early next year. The pound has struggled to make further progress against the dollar since bouncing off the psychological barrier of $1.70 earlier this month.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2011 to Present
Highest: 0.9084 EUR on Jul 01, 2011
Average: 0.8351 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.8082 EUR on May 23, 2014
Major Economic Events for the week of May 19 – 23 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
May 20 |
07:00 |
EUR |
German PPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
1.8% |
1.7% |
1.6% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
-1.1% |
-0.2% |
-0.4% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
CPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
|
|
May 21 |
09:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.3% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
6.9% |
5.2% |
4.8% |
|
|
10:35 |
EUR |
German 10-Year Bund Auction |
1.410% |
1.490% |
||
|
May 22 |
02:45 |
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
49.7 |
48.1 |
48.1 |
|
08:00 |
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
49.3 |
51.0 |
51.2 |
|
|
08:00 |
EUR |
French Services PMI |
49.2 |
50.2 |
50.4 |
|
|
08:30 |
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
52.9 |
54.0 |
54.1 |
|
|
08:30 |
EUR |
German Services PMI |
56.4 |
54.5 |
54.7 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
52.5 |
53.2 |
53.4 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
Services PMI |
53.5 |
53.0 |
53.1 |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Business Investment (QoQ) |
2.7% |
2.3% |
2.4% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.8% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
GDP (YoY) |
3.1% |
3.1% |
3.1% |
|
|
09:45 |
EUR |
Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction |
2.968% |
3.059% |
||
|
11:00 |
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
0 |
4 |
-1 |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
326K |
310K |
298K |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.65M |
4.68M |
4.59M |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales (MoM) |
1.3% |
2.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
May 23 |
07:00 |
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) |
0.8% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
07:00 |
EUR |
German GDP (YoY) |
2.5% |
2.3% |
2.5% |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
110.4 |
110.9 |
111.2 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
German Current Assessment |
114.8 |
115.5 |
115.3 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
German Business Expectations |
106.2 |
106.6 |
107.3 |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
433K |
425K |
407K |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales (MoM) |
6.4% |
-6.9% |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and the USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
May 26 |
EUR |
8.5 |
8.5 |
|
|
May 27 |
USD |
0.3% |
2.1% |
|
|
USD |
11.9% |
12.9% |
||
|
USD |
83.0 |
82.3 |
||
|
May 28 |
EUR |
8.5 |
||
|
EUR |
0.3% |
0.4% |
||
|
May 29 |
EUR |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
USD |
1.3% |
1.3% |
||
|
USD |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
||
|
USD |
0.7% |
3.4% |
||
|
May 30 |
EUR |
0.4% |
-0.7% |
|
|
EUR |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
||
|
USD |
0.2% |
0.2% |
||
|
USD |
0.2% |
0.9% |
||
|
USD |
61.0 |
63.0 |
||
|
USD |
82.4 |
81.8 |
||
|
USD |
74.0 |
73.2 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
May 26 09:30 Germany
May 27 00:30 Japan
May 27 08:00 Holland
May 26 15:30 Italy
May 27 09:10 Italy
May 27 14:30 UK
May 28 09:10 Italy
May 28 09:30 Germany
May 28 09:30 UK
May 28 13:20 Sweden
May 29 00:30 Japan
May 29 09:10 Italy
May 30 08:50 France
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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