Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP closed at 0.7046 slightly up for the week as both currencies traded in the red. Economists had been
The EUR/GBP closed at 0.7046 slightly up for the week as both currencies traded in the red. Economists had been expecting the Chancellor’s speech to confirm widespread and extended austerity measures, but the main headline grabber proved to be a complete scrapping of his controversial £4.4bn tax credit cuts, announced earlier this parliament. The Chancellor’s public finance predictions also pleased the market – Osborne used today’s statement to announce forecasts that the domestic deficit will stand at 3.9% of the UK’s GDP this year, before falling to 1.2% and 0.2% in 2016/17 and 2017/18 respectively. Surpluses of 0.5% and 0.6% are anticipated in the next two financial years.
Sterling fell on Friday, heading back towards a seven-month low against its crosses, after data confirmed the British economy was being buffeted by a global slowdown and which is likely to prompt the central bank to keep rates lower for longer. The economy grew 0.5 per cent in the third quarter, confirming a preliminary reading, and slowing from 0.7 per cent growth between April and June. The figure was in line with forecasts, with growth dragged down by net trade.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week:
|
|
|
|
Event |
|
|
Consensus |
Previous |
|
|||||||||
TUESDAY, DEC 01 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
JPY |
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda |
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
AUD |
RBA Interest Rate Decision |
|
2% |
2% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
Unemployment Change (Nov) |
|
-5K |
-5K |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate s.a. (Nov) |
|
6.4% |
6.4% |
|||||||||||
WEDNESDAY, DEC 02 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
AUD |
RBA’s Governor Glenn Stevens |
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
Consumer Price Index – Core |
|
1.1% |
1.1% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov) |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
|
-0.4% |
-0.3% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
Producer Price Index (YoY) (Nov) |
|
-3.2% |
-3.1% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
CAD |
BoC Interest Rate Decision |
|
0.5% |
||||||||||||
|
|
|
CAD |
BOC Rate Statement |
|
|||||||||||||
THURSDAY, DEC 03 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec 3) |
|
0.05% |
0.05% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
ECB press conference |
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
USD |
Fed’s Yellen testifies |
|
|||||||||||||
FRIDAY, DEC 04 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate (Nov) |
|
5% |
5% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) |
|
200K |
271K |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
CAD |
Net Change in Employment (Nov) |
|
0.7K |
44.4K |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate (Nov) |
|
7% |
7% |
|||||||||||
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction
Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec
Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions
Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs
Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction