EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 14, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY added 21 points as the euro reacted in a positive manner to strong Chinese trade data released early this

EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 14, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY added 21 points as the euro reacted in a positive manner to strong Chinese trade data released early this morning. The Japan remained quiet with Japanese markets closed for a national holiday. The pair is trading at 136.02 well below its recent trading range. The EUR briefly saw daylight after the FOMC minutes, driven higher by ‘long’ dollar positions taking some profit. Nevertheless, the downturn in emerging economies combined with the Russian trade sanctions has caused a sharp slowdown to Europe’s backbone – Germany. It’s the eurozone’s only remaining growth driver and obviously a huge concern for the ECB. To some, the dollar has rallied too far and too fast since July.

Bank of Japan Governor (BoJ) Haruhiko Kuroda says he’s comfortable with the yen’s recent deprecation, noting the currency is merely in the process of correcting from excessive strength.

The Japanese currency has lost over 6 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar over the past three months amid a strengthening greenback. Earlier this month, it briefly broke through the 110 threshold for the first time in more than six years.

“The U.S. and U.K. are starting a normalization process while on the other hand the ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ continue their accommodative monetary policy and that could have some exchange rate implications,” he said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.		Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Holiday	Japan – Health-Sports Day
	Holiday	Canada – Thanksgiving Day
CNY		Exports (YoY) (Sep)	15.3%	11.8%	9.4%
CNY		Imports (YoY) (Sep)	7.0%	-2.7%	-2.4%
CNY		Trade Balance (Sep)	31.00B	41.00B	49.83B

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	RBA Asst Gov. Debelle
CNY	New Loans		750B	703B
EUR	French CPI		-0.3%	0.4%
EUR	French HICP		-0.3%	0.5%
EUR	Spanish CPI		0.2%	0.2%
GBP	CPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.2%	0.4%
GBP	CPI (YoY) (Sep)		1.4%	1.5%
GBP	PPI Input (MoM) (Sep)		-0.4%	-0.6%
EUR	Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep)		-0.3%	-0.3%
EUR	Industrial Production		-1.6%	1.0%