EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 2–6, 2013 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY climbed to recent highs while the Japanese yen continued to tumble which allowed this pair to move toward record highs. The pair is likely to break above the 1.40 number on Monday after touching a weekly high of 139.71.  The first drop in eurozone unemployment in three years and a bigger-than-forecast pickup in annual inflation may ease pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce interest rates for the 17-member currency bloc. The jobless rate edged down to 12.1 per cent in October, despite being forecast to remain at September’s level of 12.2 per cent, the European Union statistics office Eurostat said on Friday. There were 19.298 million people out of work in the 17-member currency bloc in November following a drop of 61,000 from the previous month. The annual rate of consumer inflation, meanwhile, climbed from 0.7 to 0.9 per cent in November, well below the two per cent level deemed by the ECB to be right for growth.

The battle against deflation got support in October with a key inflation indicator rising at its fastest pace in 15 years, new data showed Friday, as the government battles to reverse years of falling prices. The broader consumer price index, which measures a basket of everyday goods but excludes fresh food, rose 0.9 percent last month from a year earlier, the fastest pace in five years.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government has put conquering deflation and stoking growth in the world’s third-largest economy at the top of its agenda with a policy blitz dubbed “Abenomics.” Friday’s data showed the BOJ’s ambitious 2 percent inflation target — set to be reached in just two years — is still far off.

Analysts have been warning that Tokyo’s bold pro-growth program — a mix of big government spending and central bank monetary easing — is not enough on its own without promised economic reforms.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 133.80JPY on May 22, 2013

Average: 109.45JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on Jul 24, 2012

 

Major Economic Events for the week of November 25-29 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 03 10:30 Belgium

Dec 03 15:30 UK

Dec 04 10:30 Germany

Dec 04 10:30 Portugal

Dec 04 15:30 Sweden

Dec 05 09:30 Spain

Dec 05 09:50 France

Dec 05 10:10 Sweden

Dec 05 12:00 Norway

Dec 05 16:00 US

Dec 06 16:30 Italy