EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 3 – 7, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US

EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 3 – 7, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth – not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly correlated with how the US economy is doing.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY closed the week at a recent high, of 107.12. With the euro remaining at a low value, it still was able to gain some momentum in the markets this week, with the successful conclusion of negotiations with Greece, which helped buoy the currency and lift sentiment. While the JPY continued to tumble as political uncertainty remains until the December 16th elections.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Nov 30, 2012	107.12	106.56	107.67	106.44	0.53%
Nov 29, 2012	106.56	106.40	106.81	106.16	0.15%
Nov 28, 2012	106.40	106.21	106.46	105.29	0.18%
Nov 27, 2012	106.21	106.35	106.96	106.12	-0.13%
Nov 26, 2012	106.35	107.11	107.13	106.09	-0.71%

Global traders are worried about Shinto Abe, the likely winner and his views towards the economy and the role of the Bank of Japan and monetary easing. The JPY is trading against the USD close to yearly lows.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Major Economic Events for the week of November 26 – 30 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Nov. 26	NZD	Trade Balance	-718M	-536M	-775M
Nov. 27	NZD	Inflation Expectations (QoQ)	2.3%		2.3%
	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.5%	-0.5%	1.7%
	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.0%	-0.6%	9.2%
	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	73.7	73.0	73.1
Nov. 28	AUD	Construction Work Done (QoQ)	1.7%	2.7%	0.9%
	USD	New Home Sales	368K	390K	369K
	JPY	Retail Sales (YoY)	-1.2%	-0.7%	0.4%
Nov. 29	AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	3.4%		-3.7%
	AUD	Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ)	2.8%	2.0%	3.4%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	393K	390K	416K
	USD	GDP (QoQ)	2.7%	2.8%	2.0%
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3287K	3323K	3357K
	USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	5.2%	0.8%	0.4%
	NZD	Building Consents (MoM)	-1.5%		7.6%
	JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)	-0.5%	-0.4%	-0.4%
	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.8%	-2.2%	-4.1%
Nov. 30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	-0.2%	0.2%	0.8%
	USD	Chicago PMI	50.4	50.5	49.9

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010

Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 03	00:30	AUD	Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)	-2.5%	-0.7%
	00:30	AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.4%	0.5%
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	51.3	51.7
Dec. 04	00:30	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	-2.0%	7.8%
	00:30	AUD	Current Account	-14.8B	-11.8B
	03:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.00%	3.25%
Dec. 05	00:30	AUD	GDP (QoQ)	0.6%	0.6%
	13:15	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	125K	158K
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	2.7%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	-0.9%	-0.1%
	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.5	54.2
	20:00	NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.50%	2.50%
Dec. 07	00:30	AUD	Trade Balance	-2.05B	-1.46B