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European Equities: A Quiet Economic Calendar Leaves Omicron News to Test the Majors

By:
Bob Mason
Published: Dec 20, 2021, 01:08 UTC

There are no majors stats from the Eurozone or the U.S to provide direction today. The lack of stats will leave COVID-19 news and any central bank chatter in focus.

Depositphotos_213648764_s-2019

In this article:

Economic Calendar

Tuesday, 21st December

GfK German Consumer Climate (Jan)

Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence (Dec)

Thursday, 23rd December

Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

The Majors

It was a bearish end to the week for the European majors on Friday. The CAC40 slid by 1.12%, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 falling by 0.67% and by 0.52% respectively.

On the economic data front, weaker business sentiment figures from Germany and another pickup in German wholesale inflation pressures the majors.

Negative sentiment towards the shift in FED forward guidance on interest rates also weighed on the European majors. The overnight tech sell-off in the U.S had set the tone ahead of the European open. Uncertainty over the Omicron strain added to the market angst at the end of the week.

The Stats

Going into the European session, German wholesale inflation figures drew attention ahead of Ifo Business Climate figures. Finalized Eurozone inflation figures for November were also in focus.

German Wholesale Inflation

In November, Germany’s producer index increased by 0.8% after having risen by 3.8% in October. More significantly, Germany’s annual rate of wholesale inflation accelerated from 18.4% to 19.2%. Economists had forecast a monthly rise of 1.4% and an annual rate of wholesale inflation of 19.9%.

According to Destatis,

  • The annual rate of wholesale inflation was the most marked since Nov-1951 (+20.6%).
  • Rising energy prices (+49.4%) contributed to the increase in producer prices when compared with Nov-2020.
  • There were also marked prices increases on intermediate goods (+19.1%), driven by a 79.1% surge in prices of secondary raw materials.
  • Prices of non-durable consumer goods increased by 3.7%, year-on-year, driven by prices for oils and fats.

German Business Sentiment

For December, the Ifo Business Climate Index fell from 96.5 to 94.7 versus a forecasted decline to 95.3.

Weighing on the headline number was a fall in the Business Expectations indicator from 94.2 to 92.6 and the Current Assessment indicator from 99.0 to 96.9.

According to the December survey,

German Manufacturing:

  • The business climate index rose from 16.7 to 17.3, after having fallen for 5 consecutive months from a June 28.9.
  • More optimistic expectations contributed, with order books on the rise.
  • Companies’ assessments of the current situation were worse, however, with supply bottlenecks for intermediate products and raw materials intensified once more.

Services:

  • The business climate slumped from 11.6 to 4.5, with the last similar size decline registered in April 2020.
  • Service providers were considerably less satisfied with their current business.
  • Expectations also turned pessimistic.

Eurozone Inflation

In November, the Eurozone’s annual rate of inflation accelerated from 4.1% to 4.9%, which was in line with forecasts. The core annual rate of inflation picked up from 2.0% to 2.6%, which was also in line with forecasts.

From the U.S

There were no major stats from the U.S to provide the European majors with direction on the day.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bearish day for the auto sector on Friday. Daimler and Volkswagen led the way down, with losses of 3.60% and 3.81% respectively, with BMW sliding by 3.38%. Continental ended the day down by a more modest 1.46%.

It was also a bearish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank fell by 1.40% and by 2.33% respectively.

From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole fell by 1.39% and by 1.59% respectively, with Soc Gen sliding 2.25%.

The French auto sector also struggled. Stellantis NV and Renault ended the day down by 2.61% and by 1.30% respectively.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE bucked the trend, however, rising by 1.76% and by 1.70% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the green for the  VIX on Friday.

Following a 6.64% gain on Thursday, the VIX rose by 4.86% to end the day at 21.57.

The NASDAQ slid by 2.95%, with the Dow and the S&P500 falling by 1.48% and by 1.03% respectively.

VIX 201221 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the Eurozone’s economic calendar. There are no material stats from the Eurozone to provide the majors with direction. From the U.S, there are also no stats to consider, leaving the majors in the hands of any central bank chatter and COVID-19 news updates.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 121 points, with the DAX down 157 points.

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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