European Equities: COVID-19 News and Member State Inflation in Focus
Monday, 29th November
Spanish HICP (YoY) (Nov) Prelim
Spanish CPI (YoY) (Oct) Prelim
German CPI (MoM) (Nov) Prelim
Tuesday, 30th November
French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Oct)
French GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
French CPI m/m (Nov) Prelim
French HICP m/m (Nov) Prelim
German Unemployment Change (Nov)
German Unemployment Rate (Nov)
Italian CPI (MoM) (Nov) Prelim
Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Nov) Prelim
Wednesday, 1st December
German Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Italian Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
French Manufacturing PMI (Nov) Final
German Manufacturing PMI (Nov) Final
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Nov) Final
Thursday, 2nd December
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Oct)
Friday, 3rd December
Spanish Services PMI (Nov)
Italian Services PMI (Nov)
French Services PMI (Nov) Final
German Services PMI (Nov) Final
Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Nov) Final
Eurozone Services PMI (Nov) Final
Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
It was a particularly bearish end to the week for the European majors on Friday.
The DAX30 and CAC40 slid by 4.15% and by 4.75% respectively, with the EuroStoxx600 ending the day down by 3.67%.
Economic data and market sentiment towards inflation and monetary policy took a back seat on Friday.
News of a new COVID-19 strain and government plans to contain the spread of the more virulent strain from South Africa by border controls left the majors in the deep red.
Following a string of stats from Germany, French consumers and Italian businesses were in focus this morning.
French Consumer Confidence
In November, French Consumer Confidence held steady at 99 versus a forecasted decline to 98. The numbers were steady in spite of a marked deterioration in confidence in Germany and across the euro bloc.
According to insee.fr,
- Households’ opinions related to their past financial situation has decreased by 3-points.
- Also in decline was households’ opinion in relation to their future personal financial situation, which slipped by 1 point.
- Households’ opinion related to their future saving capacity bounced by 10 points, however, returning to its September level.
- With regards to the households’ opinion balance about the opportunity to save, the balance remained stable as did the one relative to their current saving capacity.
- Positive was a fall in unemployment fears, which declined by 6 points.
- By contrast, the share of households considering that prices were on the rise during the past 12-months rose by 9 points to its highest level since 2012.
Interestingly, households considering that prices will be on the rise during the next 12-months fell by 13 points.
Italian Business and Consumer Confidence
While French consumer confidence held steady, consumer confidence in Italy weakened slightly from 118.4 to 117.5. By contrast, however, business confidence picked up from 115.1 to 116.0.
From the U.S
There were no major stats to consider, with the U.S markets on a shortened session.
The Market Movers
For the DAX: It was a particularly bearish day for the auto sector on Friday. BMW and Continental both slid by 6.25% to lead the way down, with Daimler ended the day down by 6.16%. Volkswagen fell by a more modest 5.34%.
It was also a bearish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank saw losses of 6.69% and 5.58% respectively.
From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. Soc Gen slid by 7.06, with Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas seeing losses of 4.39% and 5.86% respectively.
The French auto sector also had a bearish session. Stellantis NV fell by 6.84%, with Renault ending the day down by 7.8%.
Air France-KLM and Airbus SE led the way down, however, tumbling by 9.67% and by 11.49% respectively.
On the VIX Index
It was a shortened U.S session, with market reaction to COVID-19 news leading to a spike in the VIX.
Reversing a 4.13% fall from Wednesday, the VIX surged by 54.04% to end the day at 28.62.
The Dow slid by 2.53%, with the NASDAQ and the S&P500 seeing losses of 2.23% and 2.27% respectively.
The Day Ahead
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the Eurozone’s economic calendar. Prelim November inflation figures for Spain and Germany will be in focus later today.
With plenty of market sensitivity to inflation, expect a responsive EUR.
From the U.S, there are no major stats to provide direction, leaving the majors in the hands of central bank chatter later in the day.
Away from the economic calendar, however, COVID-19 news will remain the key driver.
In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 166 points and the DAX by 157 points.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.