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Bob Mason
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Economic Calendar:

Wednesday, 5th May 2021

Spanish Services PMI (Apr)

Italian Services PMI (Apr)

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French Services PMI (Apr) Final

German Services PMI (Apr) Final

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Apr) Final

Eurozone Services PMI (Apr) Final

Thursday, 6th May 2021

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar)

IHS Markit Construction PMI (Apr)

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

Friday, 7th May 2021

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)

German Trade Balance (Mar)

ECB President Lagarde Speech

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The Majors

It was a bullish start to the week for the European majors on Monday. The CAC40 and the DAX30 rose by 0.61% and by 0.66% respectively, with EuroStoxx600 ending the day up by 0.58%.

Economic data from the Eurozone delivered the European majors with support through the early part of the session.

From the U.S, stats were market negative, however, limiting the upside on the day.

The Stats

It was a busy day on the economic calendar on Monday. Manufacturing PMI figures for Italy and Spain were in focus along with finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone. German retail sales also drew attention ahead of the European open.

German Retail Sales

In March, retail sales jumped by 7.7% month-on-month, following an upwardly revised 2.7% increase in February.

According to Destatis,

  • Compared to the pre-crisis month of February 2020, retail sales were up by 4.4%.
  • Year-on-year, retail sales was up by 11.0%, which was the strongest year-on-year increase since records began back in 1994.

Member State Manufacturing PMIs

Spain’s Manufacturing PMI rose from 56.9 to 57.7 in April, with Italy’s Manufacturing PMI increasing from 59.8 to 60.7. Economists had forecast PMIs of 59.0 and 61.0 respectively.

From France, the Manufacturing PMI declined from 59.3 to 58.9, which was down from a prelim 59.2.

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI fell from 66.6 to 66.2 which was down from a prelim 66.4.

The Eurozone

The Manufacturing PMI rose from 62.5 to 62.9 in April. This was down from a prelim 63.3.

According to the Markit Survey,

  • Operating conditions improved at a rate that surpassed March’s survey record.
  • Growth was broad-based, with both the investment and intermediate goods categories registering considerable gains.
  • Importantly, manufacturers of investment goods recorded the most marked improvement on record.
  • Consumer goods also saw a marked improvement in operating conditions, while lagging the two other categories.
  • The Netherlands led the way, positing a record high PMI followed by Germany.
  • Growth rates for both output and new orders remained closed to March’s survey records.
  • Firms reported rising market confidence, with new orders rising sharply as a result of signs that both manufacturers and clients are anticipating a sharp increase in activity in the coming months.
  • New export orders also rose at a considerable pace in April.
  • Product growth was limited, however, due to some degree of capacity constraints.
  • As a result of product shortages, input prices rose at the 2nd fastest rate on record.
  • Firms raised their own charges to the strongest degree in over 18-years of available data.
  • Manufacturers increased payrolls for the third consecutive month and by the largest number since Feb-2018.
  • According to the latest data, manufacturers were at their most optimistic in nearly 9-years.

From the U.S

Manufacturing PMI figures were also in focus late in the European session.

In April, the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 64.7 to 60.7, falling below a forecasted 65.0.

Also market positive was an increase in the Markit Manufacturing PMI from 59.1 to 60.5. This was down marginally from a prelim 60.6, however.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Monday. Volkswagen rallied by 2.49%, with BMW rising by 1.78%. Continental and Daimler saw more modest gains of 0.21% and 0.22% respectively.

It was a mixed day for the banks. Deutsche Bank slid by 1.99%, while Commerzbank ended the day up by 1.93%.

From the CAC, it was a relatively bullish day for the banks. Credit Agricole and Soc Gen rose by 0.20% and by 0.25% respectively, with BNP Paribas gaining 0.13%.

It was a bullish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV and Renault ended the day with gains of 1.43% and 1.77% respectively.

Air France-KLM rose by 1.38%, while Airbus SE slipped by 0.03%.

On the VIX Index

After 2 consecutive days in the green, it was back into the red for the VIX on Monday

Partially reversing a 5.68% gain from Friday, the VIX fell by 1.61% to end the day at 18.31.

The NASDAQ slipped by 0.48%, while the Dow and the S&P500 rose by 0.70% and by 0.27% respectively.

The Day Ahead

It’s a quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the European majors with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the majors in the hands of trade data and factory orders from the U.S.

On the day, the markets will also consider corporate earnings and COVID-19 news updates from the EU and around the world.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 59 points, with the DAX down by 21 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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