EURUSD Forecast – Euro Slows Down on Friday

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 19.06.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro rallied slightly during early trading on Friday, as we continue to see the US dollar soften. The euro got a boost from the ECB on Thursday, and of course we also have the Federal Reserve choose to skip raising interest rates this last meeting, so people are starting to price in a huge divergence between the 2 central banks. While the Federal Reserve suggested that they will in fact possibly high going forward, it’s hard to tell if the market believes them. Quite frankly, the market has not believed them most of the time, so it’s very possible that the market will just simply continue to do the same thing.

At this point, pullbacks toward the bottom of the Thursday candlestick should attract a certain amount of value hunting, and therefore plenty of “buy on the dip” mentality. The euro looks as if it is trying to get to the 1.10 level, and quite frankly we are almost there so it’s not a huge surprise. If we continue to see a lot of concerns about the Federal Reserve sitting tight, it makes sense that the US dollar takes a bit of a beating, especially against the euro which has just seen the ECB tighten again.

Ultimately, I think this is a market that there will be plenty of buyers waiting to get involved, so I think at this point in time it’s probably a market that’s going to be difficult to short. Whether or not we can break out above the 1.11 level remains to be seen, which was the most recent high. If the market were to break above there, then it’s likely become more or less a “buy-and-hold” situation. Underneath, we not only have the 50-Day EMA, we have the 200-Day EMA below there to show signs of support yet again. With that being the case, I think we’ve got a situation where we need to be cautious, but recognize that there is generally an overall bullishness to this market that cannot be ignored. If we did somehow break below the 200-Day EMA it would be a massive turnaround that would be a bit surprising at this point.

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