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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 14, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 13, 2015, 11:16 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD declined 45 points to trade at 1.1113 giving back a good portion of yesterday’s gains. The euro gained over 100

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 14, 2015 – Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 14, 2015 - Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 14, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD declined 45 points to trade at 1.1113 giving back a good portion of yesterday’s gains. The euro gained over 100 points after a deal was concluded with Greece and Chinese markets kept traders on edge. The pair is expected to continue its adjustment phase and give back most of its gains.

Global markets rallied Thursday after two days of sharp declines following China’s unexpected move to weaken its currency. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 1.7% midmorning. Germany’s DAX index rose 1.6%, while France’s CAC 40 index was up 1.9%.

Asian bourses were higher across the board and local currencies also regained some ground after a recovery in U.S. stock markets late Wednesday. China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed 1.8% higher, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gained 1.0%.

U.S. stock futures indicated a 0.2% opening gain for the S&P 500. Changes in futures aren’t necessarily reflected in market moves after the opening bell. “Markets over the last couple of days were overreacting to what I would argue was quite a healthy move from the Chinese authorities to move toward a more freely floating exchange rate regime,” said Alan Maudie, head of investment strategy at Société Générale Private Banking, which oversees €117 billion in assets.

The dollar was moderately higher against the euro Thursday as the Chinese central bank’s continued effort to guide the yuan lower was met with a milder reaction than previous sessions.

Resource-related, risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar also showed more moderate reaction than the wide fluctuations seen after China’s decision to devalue its tightly controlled currency jolted global financial markets earlier this week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Business NZ PMI (Jul)

53.5

 

55.2

 

 

  GBP

 

RICS House Price Balance (Jul)

44%

42%

40%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Jul)

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jul)

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jul)

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

  CHF

 

PPI (MoM) (Jul)

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

Account of Monetary Policy Meeting  

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD(15 minutes)20150813065147

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 14, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Core Retail Sales (QoQ)

 

0.7%

2.9%

 

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

 

0.5%

0.3%

 

 

  EUR

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)

 

1.0%

1.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

-0.6%

0.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

PPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

0.1%

0.4%

 

 

  CAD

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jun)

 

2.1%

0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)  

 

93.5

93.1

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz

Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

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