EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 17, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Aug 14, 2015, 09:38 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD gained 6 points after Eurozone inflation met expectations while German GDP missed forecast. The Dollar is a bit

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 17, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD gained 6 points after Eurozone inflation met expectations while German GDP missed forecast. The Dollar is a bit stronger today, but traders pushed up the euro in the session. The pair is trading at 1.1156. Euro-area economic growth unexpectedly slowed last quarter as expansion in its three largest economies fell short of estimates, highlighting the fragility of the recovery amid uncertainty surrounding the global outlook.

Gross domestic product in the 19-nation region rose 0.3 percent, data on Friday showed. Economists had forecast that the 0.4 percent pace of the first quarter would be maintained. Germany’s economy grew 0.4 percent, Italy’s 0.2 percent, while France stagnated.

With China jolting global markets by devaluing its currency and Greece on the verge of a new bailout program, the euro area’s nascent revival may yet struggle. European Central Bank policy makers meeting in July called the recovery “disappointing” and said they’re ready to adjust stimulus if needed, a summary of the discussions showed on Thursday.

German gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.4 percent in the quarter between April and June after expanding by 0.3 percent in the first three months of 2015. The consensus forecast for the second quarter in a Reuters poll was for 0.5 percent growth.

“Growth is not rapid at the moment, but it has a solid basis,” said Holger Sandte at Nordea. “The biggest weakness is in companies’ investments, and that is likely to remain the case as a good outlook for sales is apparently lacking.”

The mood among analysts and investors in Germany worsened in August due to concerns about the effect of an unstable global economic backdrop on the country’s export-dependent economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Jul)	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
USD	PPI (MoM) (Jul)		0.1%	0.4%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, August 17, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		-0.5%	1.0%
JPY	GDP (YoY) (Q2)		-1.9%	3.9%
EUR	Trade Balance (Jun)			18.8B
USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index		5.00	3.86
CAD	Foreign Securities Purchases (Jun)			-5.45B