EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 21, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 11:49 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD added 40 points to 1.1159 as the greenback weakened on disappointing comments contained in the FOMC minute

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 21, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD added 40 points to 1.1159 as the greenback weakened on disappointing comments contained in the FOMC minute report on Wednesday. The dollar was under pressure in Asian trading on Thursday after surprisingly bearish minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s last meeting dampened hopes for an imminent interest rate hike.

The euro ticked up in US trade, winning support from news that European finance ministers formally approved Greece’s 86 billion euro bailout.

The dollar took a hit in New York after US central bank dampened expectations for a rate hike that some had thought could come as early as September. While Fed said the time for a hike was “approaching”, it singled out a slowdown in China’s economy as a red flag for US growth.

Those concerns have been heightened since the last Fed meeting in July, before China unexpectedly devalued its currency last week in a move seen as designed to boost slowing exports.

Greece is set to receive the first instalment of its third multi-billion-euro bailout on Thursday, just as a key repayment to the European Central Bank falls due.

A source close to the matter said Greece would receive 23 billion euros (S$36 billion) on Thursday morning, allowing Athens to make a loan repayment of 3.4 billion euros due the same day to the European Central Bank (ECB).

Greece got the green light on Wednesday to start repaying its debts and reviving its economy after eurozone finance ministers formally approved the third reforms-for-rescue package of up to 86 billion euros.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
EUR	German PPI (MoM) (Jul)	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%
USD	FOMC Member Williams Speaks
GBP	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)	0.4%	0.4%	-0.3%
GBP	Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
GBP	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)	0.1%	0.4%	-0.1%
GBP	Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)	4.2%	4.4%	4.2%
GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Aug)	-1	-10	-10

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 21, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)		47.7	47.8
EUR	German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)		51.7	51.8
EUR	German Services PMI (Aug)		53.9	53.8
EUR	Manufacturing PMI (Aug)		52.2	52.4
EUR	Markit Composite PMI (Aug)		53.8	53.9
EUR	Services PMI (Aug)		54.0	54.0
CAD	Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)		2.4%	2.3%
CAD	Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)		0.0%	0.0%
CAD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)		0.5%	0.9%
CAD	CPI (MoM) (Jul)		0.1%	0.2%
CAD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)		0.2%	1.0%
USD	Manufacturing PMI (Aug)		54.0	53.8