EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 4, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Aug 3, 2015, 10:43 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD is more or less flat today, trading at 1.0977 showing no reaction to a better than expected German manufacturing

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 4, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is more or less flat today, trading at 1.0977 showing no reaction to a better than expected German manufacturing PMI report. As countries such as Greece showed significant retraction in the sector. The dollar rose against the euro after falling in US trade owing to a weak report on workers’ pay that reignited questions about the timeline for an interest rate hike.

On Friday, the dollar fell against other major currencies as the US report showed wages and salaries rose just 0.2 percent in the second quarter, decelerating from 0.7 percent growth in the first.

The disappointing data came after confidence rose on a report from the US Commerce Department Thursday that said the world’s top economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the April-June period, the strongest growth since the third quarter of 2014.

Business activity in the 19-member euro zone eased in July, suggesting the recovery lost momentum at the start of the second half of the year, a survey released on Friday showed.

The Markit flash euro zone composite purchasing managers’ index, which measures activity in manufacturing and services sectors, fell month on month to 53.7 in July, down from a four-year high of 54.2 in June.

“July’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI offers some early support to our view that the fragile recovery will slow in the second half of the year,” Jennifer McKeown, senior European economist at Capital Economics said in a note.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Canada – Civic Holiday
CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	47.8	48.3	48.2
EUR	German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	51.8	51.5	51.5
GBP	Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	51.9	51.6	51.4

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)		0.5%	0.3%
AUD	Interest Rate Decision (Aug)		2.00%	2.00%
GBP	Construction PMI (Jul)		58.4	58.1