EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 6, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD tumbled 18 points to 1.0863 after retail sales printed much lower than expected. Services and composite PMI did a bit better limiting the decline of the euro. The US dollar continued to rally today after Fed member Lockhart said he would push for an interest rate increase in September.  Mr. Lockhart, a voting member on the Fed’s monetary-policy committee, told The Wall Street Journal that only a “significant deterioration in the economic picture” would keep him from voting for the central bank to raise short-term U.S. interest rates for the first time since 2006. The message sparked dollar-buying Tuesday afternoon.

Investors regard Mr. Lockhart as a centrist among Fed officials, so his words sent a strong signal that the Fed is moving closer to raising interest rates at its September meeting.

Retail sales in the eurozone fell more sharply than expected in June, a fresh sign that the currency area’s economic recovery remains too weak to quickly bring down very high rates of unemployment, or raise inflation to the European Central Bank’s target.

Separately, the final results of surveys of purchasing managers at businesses around the eurozone recorded a slowdown in activity during July, although it was less marked than first estimated.

The European Union’s statistics agency said Wednesday retail sales in the 19 countries that use the euro fell 0.6% in June from May, but were up 1.2% from the same month last year. It was the largest month-to-month fall since September 2014. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had estimated sales fell 0.2%, having seen figures from Germany that recorded a large drop.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, August 6, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 06 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Aug 06 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Aug 10 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Aug

Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus