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Barry Norman

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 7, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD eased a bit as the greenback gained some traction today to trade at 1.0901 as traders prepare for tomorrow’s NFP report.  With the U.S. Federal Reserve poised to hike interest rates as early as next month, the dollar will rise in the coming year, but by how much will depend on the course of monetary policy, a Reuters poll found.

The driving force behind the dollar’s 18-month surge is expectation the U.S. rates will rise this year, even as most other major central banks maintain their accommodative stands.

The dollar index hit a 3-1/2 month high against a basket of currencies early on Wednesday after Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart expressed support for an interest rate hike in September.

All but four analysts in the poll have penciled in September for when the Fed will lift interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. The remaining four said December.

But the latest poll of more than 60 analysts, taken this week, showed the euro <EUR=> will fall only slightly in the coming year, with only a one-in-three chance for the single currency to fall to or below parity with the dollar.

That suggests much of the shifting landscape for global central banks has already been priced in and instead the path of the Fed’s tightening cycle will drive currencies.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Employment Change (Jul)

38.5K

10.0K

7.0K

   

  AUD

 

Unemployment Rate (Jul)

6.3%

6.0%

6.1%

   

  EUR

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun)

2.0%

0.2%

-0.3%

   

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

7.9%

8.2%

9.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)

-0.4%

0.1%

0.3%

   

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM)

0.2%

0.2%

-0.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Inflation Report

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (Aug)

 375B

375B

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (Aug)

 0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 7, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)

 

223K

223K

 

 

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate (Jul)

 

5.3%

5.3%

 

 

  CAD

 

Employment Change (Jul)

 

5.0K

-6.4K

 

 

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (Jul)

 

52.0

55.9

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 06 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Aug 06 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Aug 10 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Aug

Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz

Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

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