EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 7, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Aug 6, 2015, 12:25 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD eased a bit as the greenback gained some traction today to trade at 1.0901 as traders prepare for tomorrow’s NFP

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 7, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD eased a bit as the greenback gained some traction today to trade at 1.0901 as traders prepare for tomorrow’s NFP report. With the U.S. Federal Reserve poised to hike interest rates as early as next month, the dollar will rise in the coming year, but by how much will depend on the course of monetary policy, a Reuters poll found.

The driving force behind the dollar’s 18-month surge is expectation the U.S. rates will rise this year, even as most other major central banks maintain their accommodative stands.

The dollar index hit a 3-1/2 month high against a basket of currencies early on Wednesday after Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart expressed support for an interest rate hike in September.

All but four analysts in the poll have penciled in September for when the Fed will lift interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. The remaining four said December.

But the latest poll of more than 60 analysts, taken this week, showed the euro will fall only slightly in the coming year, with only a one-in-three chance for the single currency to fall to or below parity with the dollar.

That suggests much of the shifting landscape for global central banks has already been priced in and instead the path of the Fed’s tightening cycle will drive currencies.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Employment Change (Jul)	38.5K	10.0K	7.0K
AUD	Unemployment Rate (Jul)	6.3%	6.0%	6.1%
EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun)	2.0%	0.2%	-0.3%
GBP	Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Jul)	7.9%	8.2%	9.6%
GBP	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)	-0.4%	0.1%	0.3%
GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%	-0.6%
GBP	BoE Inflation Report
GBP	BoE QE Total (Aug)	375B	375B	375B
GBP	Interest Rate Decision (Aug)	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
GBP	BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 7, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)		223K	223K
USD	Unemployment Rate (Jul)		5.3%	5.3%
CAD	Employment Change (Jul)		5.0K	-6.4K
CAD	Ivey PMI (Jul)		52.0	55.9