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Barry Norman
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 17, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD continues to weaken as the day passes. The pair is trading at 1.3074 down 3pts, although the pair had been much high just under the 1.31 level earlier today. Reports today in the eurozone showed that the EU is falling deeper into recession as well as Euro-area services and manufacturing output contracted at a slower pace than economists forecast in December as European leaders declared progress on the latest plan to combat the debt crisis, now entering its fourth year.

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A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries rose to 47.3 from 46.5 in November, London- based Markit Economics said today. Economists had forecast a November reading of 46.9, according to the median of 16 estimates a Bloomberg News survey. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. A separate report showed European car sales fell 10 percent in November, bringing registrations so far this year to a 19-year low.

While political rhetoric reaches its peak in the US as democrats and republican continue to argue about tax increases and budget cuts ahead of the Jan 1, 2013 deadline, also data in the US printed below forecast with CPI and Core CPI falling below expectations.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data December 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 14

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.90

 

 

 

50.50 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.6

 

45.0 

 

44.5 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

 

47.2 

 

46.8 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

 

46.6 

 

46.2 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.2% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.4%

 

1.5% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-1.40%

 

0.00% 

 

0.40% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.9% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

2.0% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 17 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-0.5 

-5.2 

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

3.3B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 17 10:10 Norway 

Dec 17 18:00 US 

Dec 18 01:30 Japan 

Dec 18 09:30 Spain 

Dec 18 10:10 Greece 

Dec 18 18:00 US 

Dec 19 18:00 US 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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