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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 18, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3154 almost flat for the day. There was little in the way of eco data or news moving markets
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3154 almost flat for the day. There was little in the way of eco data or news moving markets today, as traders remain focused on US lawmakers. In fundamental news today the New York Empire State Mfg. index fell below expectations followed by a disappointing TIC Net Long Term Transaction report. EUR/USD reached a new seven month high in the Asian session mainly on buying of EUR/JPY, before falling back; still up 0.6% and outperforming on several crosses. Since its November low of 1.2662, EUR has rallied over 4.0%. The rally was fueled by progress towards a banking union as well as a broader EMU framework combined with USD negative Fed policy. This has shifted sentiment, pushing risk reversals towards zero and narrowed the net EUR short position. The LDP party won the Japanese general election with about 66% of the seats, meaning the lower house will not require the upper house for legislation approval of its coming aggressive policies to tackle deflation. China’s Central Economic Work Conference statement didn’t say anything about pro-growth initiatives, but Chinese Xinhua news agency is reporting that the government will loosen monetary policy in 2013.
As the holidays grow close volume is expected to decrease as traders prepare for the holidays and the New Year. US traders are liquidating positive and negative positions ahead of new tax changes that are uncertain at the moment, but traders do not want to get caught between the final deal by US lawmakers and the end of the year markets.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports
Economic Data December 17, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Dec. 17 |
|
GBP |
|
|
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) |
-3.3% |
|
|
|
-2.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
TRY |
|
|
Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate |
9.10% |
|
9.00% |
|
8.80% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Foreign Securities Purchases |
13.26B |
|
10.80B |
|
14.12B |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
-8.1 |
|
-1.0 |
|
-5.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
1.3B |
|
25.0B |
|
3.2B |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Dec. 18 |
09:30 |
GBP |
2.6% |
2.7% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.1% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-103.5B |
-117.4B |
|
|
Dec. 19 |
09:00 |
EUR |
102.0 |
101.4 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
108.0 |
108.1 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
96.3 |
95.2 |
|
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
25 |
33 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.875M |
0.868M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.870M |
0.894M |
|
|
Dec. 20 |
09:30 |
GBP |
0.3% |
-0.8% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.5% |
0.6% |
|
|
Dec. 21 |
07:00 |
EUR |
5.9 |
5.9 |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-14.0B |
-20.8B |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 18 01:30 Japan
Dec 18 09:30 Spain
Dec 18 10:10 Greece
Dec 18 18:00 US
Dec 19 18:00 US
Dec 20 10:30 UK
Dec 20 16:30 Italy
Dec 20 18:00 US
Dec 21 16:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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