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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 19, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD climbed to trade at 1.3228 on the back of positive comments by US lawmakers. The euro has climbed to a new
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD climbed to trade at 1.3228 on the back of positive comments by US lawmakers. The euro has climbed to a new seven-month high, but is struggling with the ability to sustainably break above 1.32. Technicals continue to point to further upside and the RSI at 70 is not yet overbought; the fundamental catalysts that have supported the euro to date have been the expansion of QE3, progress on the banking union as well as the basic framework of the future path of the EMU. The euro got a push today after President Obama and Speaker Boehner both said that a deal was close, and both made concessions. The pair met for the 3rd time in just a few days. There are speculations that a vote might happen before the end of the week. Republican leaders are going to have a difficult time selling the compromised package to get approval.
Today, markets are adding risk to portfolios supporting equities and commodities and weighing on bonds and the USD; however moves across asset classes are fairly subdued.
Also topping the agenda in the coming days would be the U.S housing starts and Building permits, which are expected to showcase a persistence of revival for the sector which has been the bright spot so far and supporting recuperation for the economy. Being the last full week of trading before Christmas, volumes could start to erode towards the weekend. In addition to the fiscal cliff talks, the U.S consumer spending data on Friday is another major event and could propose spending picking up in the world’s largest economy as most of the consumers’ set aside the risk of higher taxes next year for shopping for the festive season.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports
Economic Data December 18, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Dec. 18 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian Interest Rate Decision |
8.00% |
|
8.00% |
|
8.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
SEK |
|
|
Swedish Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
|
1.00% |
|
1.25% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
|
2.7% |
|
2.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
|
2.6% |
|
2.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
PPI Input (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
0.1% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
PPI Input (YoY) |
-0.3% |
|
-0.5% |
|
0.1% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Dec. 19 |
09:00 |
EUR |
102.0 |
101.4 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
108.0 |
108.1 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
96.3 |
95.2 |
|
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
25 |
33 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.875M |
0.868M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.870M |
0.894M |
|
|
Dec. 20 |
09:30 |
GBP |
0.3% |
-0.8% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.5% |
0.6% |
|
|
Dec. 21 |
07:00 |
EUR |
5.9 |
5.9 |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-14.0B |
-20.8B |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 19 18:00 US
Dec 20 10:30 UK
Dec 20 16:30 Italy
Dec 20 18:00 US
Dec 21 16:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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