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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 20, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD continued to climb today trading at 1.3298 well above market expectations as traders are now expecting to see

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 20, 2012, Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 20, 2012, Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis December 20, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD continued to climb today trading at 1.3298 well above market expectations as traders are now expecting to see the euro end the year at 1.33. The euro rose to an 8-1/2 month peak against the dollar, bolstered by better-than-expected German business confidence data.

Many analysts said the euro could extend gains against the thanks to year-end demand from corporate and long-term investors in thin trading conditions. Currency speculators are also cutting short euro positions built earlier this year as worries about the eurozone showed signs of waning.

Germany’s Ifo survey showed business sentiment rose for the second month running in December, raising hopes that Europe’s largest economy will recover quickly from a weak end to the year. The expectations component of the Ifo survey also rose.

Data was mixed in the US with housing starts under forecast while building permits exceeded expectations giving the report a neutral market effect.

Traders are now expecting US lawmakers to be inking a deal ahead of the holidays as market sentiment is positive and risk is the word of the day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data December 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 19

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.4

 

102.0 

 

101.4 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Current Assessment 

107.1

 

108.0 

 

108.1 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Business Expectations 

97.9

 

96.3 

 

95.2 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11:00

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

19

 

25 

 

33 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.899M

 

0.875M 

 

0.868M 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.861M

 

0.873M 

 

0.888M 

   

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

1.0% 

 

-1.5%

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 20 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

-0.8%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.5%

0.6%

Dec. 21

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

5.9

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-14.0B

-20.8B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

1.0%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.1%

-0.1%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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