EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis May 13, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD fell as the US dollar gained momentum to trade at 1.3009 down by 33 pips at this writing. The euro is down 0.3% against the USD and moving towards a test of the bottom end of its 1.2955 to 1.3243 range. The EUR weakened on the release of as expected German exports, up 0.5%m/m, as imports disappointed up just 0.8%m/m and driving the trade balance to 18.8bn; as well as weak Italian industrial production –0.8%m/m. The near‐term risk for EURUSD is the G7 meeting, Chair Bernanke’s speech today and broad movement in the USD.  The Euro slipped to a fresh monthly low of 1.2976 ahead of the G-7 meeting as European policy makers continued to scale back their push for austerity, and the single currency may ultimately give back the rebound from April (1.2743) as the fundamental outlook for the region remains clouded with high uncertainty.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the governments operating under the monetary union have ‘enough room to maneuver’ on public finances as the euro-area remains mired in recession, and warned about the ongoing deterioration in the labor market as the region faces record-high unemployment. In turn, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to come under increased pressure to carry out its easing cycle throughout 2013.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.   

Economic Data May 10, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

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