EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 7, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD continued to rally gaining 46 points to trade at 1.1232.  The dollar weakened against the euro on Wednesday after data showed the US trade deficit ballooned to a six-year high in March. Analysts said the yawning trade gap had raised questions about the outlook for an increase in US interest rates, a move that would be supportive of the greenback.

DBS Bank said in market commentary the US trade deficit was “worse than anticipated” and could mean that the initial estimates of a 0.2 percent growth in US gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter could actually be weaker.

Analysts said the market was waiting for Friday’s US jobs report for April to look for further signs about the health of the US economy, a key engine for global growth.

News that Greece has made a 200-million-euro interest payment to the International Monetary Fund that fell due on Wednesday, a Greek official familiar with the matter told Reuters. “It’s done, the money is on its way,” the official said, on condition of anonymity.

The euro surged after the announcement. Cash-strapped Athens is quickly running out of money while it tries to persuade euro zone partners and the IMF to extend further aid. The payment on Wednesday was not expected to be a problem for the country, but a 750 million euro payment to the IMF that falls due on May 12 is expected to be a bigger struggle.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt