EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 11, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD dipped 13 points on strength in the US dollar ahead of an address by Mario Draghi. German data continued to print in the red weighing on the eurozone recovery. The dollar inched up towards a seven-month peak against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, bolstered by widening rate differentials in favor of US Treasuries on expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month.

The dollar index rose 0.1 per cent to 99.072, moving back toward Friday’s peak of 99.345, a high not seen since mid-April.

The single currency had briefly come under pressure on Monday after four governing council members said a consensus is forming at the European Central Bank to take one of its benchmark interest rates deeper into negative territory in December.

Traders will eye comments from Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann, one of hawks on the ECB governing council, as he speaks for the first time since the central bank hinted at more policy easing.

In sharp contrast to the ECB, the Fed is considered very likely to tighten US monetary policy in December for the first time in nearly a decade, following Friday’s robust jobs data.

Even Eric Rosengren, the dovish president of the Boston Fed, pointed to December as an appropriate time to begin raising rates.

Tuesday is lacking in top-tier U.S. economic data releases.

The U.S. currency was slightly higher against the euro, as a media report about the European Central Bank’s easing steps kept a lid on gains in the single bloc’s currency. A consensus is forming at the ECB to take the interest rate it charges banks to park money deeper into negative territory in December, Reuters reported, citing governing council members.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 09 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 16:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 11:00 Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 11:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 11 12:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 12 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 11:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 10:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 10:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Nov 19 10:50 France Auctions BTANs

Nov 19 11:50 France Auctions OATi

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov