EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 12, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Nov 11, 2015, 12:20 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD gave back most of its gains to trade close to flat at 1.0726 as the US dollar regained its losses reach 99.21.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 12, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD gave back most of its gains to trade close to flat at 1.0726 as the US dollar regained its losses reach 99.21. The greenback had looked to be steaming higher again on Tuesday after a brief period of consolidation following shockingly strong US jobs numbers last week that for many baked in a rise in Federal Reserve interest rates next month.

But the debate this week among analysts and traders at the major banks has raised a number of potential barriers to a push past levels around $1.0450 per euro that stymied the greenback in March and April.

Analysts pointed to speeches by European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi as the best chance of fresh direction for the market over the next couple of days. Draghi is expected talk about additional stimulus and the outlook for the Eurozone over the next few months. The euro sank to a six-month low against the dollar on Tuesday as investors bet the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month, while its Eurozone counterpart mulls further easing.

The US is on holiday today and there is a lack of economic data on the calendar.

Traders are looking ahead to comments from three top Fed policy makers–Chairwoman Janet Yellen, Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and New York Fed President William Dudley–to see if they provide more details about the likelihood of a rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting. The Fed hasn’t raised interest rates since 2006.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	6.300M	0.500M	2.800M
AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	3.9%		4.2%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct)	10.2%	10.2%	10.3%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)	5.6%	5.8%	5.7%
GBP	BoE Gov Carney Speaks
GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep)	3.0%	3.2%	3.0%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Oct)	3.3K	1.5K	0.5K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Sep)	5.3%	5.4%	5.4%
EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Oct)			55.4
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Oct)		45%	44%
AUD	Unemployment Rate (Oct)		6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.0%	0.0%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		-0.1%	-0.5%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		270K	276K
USD	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)		5.370M	5.370M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories		0.752M	2.847M
USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Oct)		-130.0B	91.0B